MIT22_081JF10_lec06b

MIT22_081JF10_lec06b -...

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1.818J/2.65J/3.564J/10.391J/11.371J/22.811J/ESD166J± SUSTAINABLE ENERGY± Prof. Michael W. Golay Nuclear Engineering Dept.
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Energy Supply, Demand, and Storage Planning The Example of Electricity 1
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- PRESENTATION OUTLINE I. Introduction II. Demand Variations for Electricity III. Electricity Supply Availability . ocational ased Electricity Markets IV. Locational Based Electricity Markets 2
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INTRODUCTION Due to Large Fluctuations in Supply and Demand, Energy Systems Must be Able to Respond to Changing Conditions in Order to Meet Consumer Energy Needs Across Time and Space Examples Oil products: home heating oil and gasoline Natural gas Electricity is the Most Pronounced Example 3
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I. Demand Variations 4
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ANNUAL AND SEASONAL ± DEMAND VARIATIONS± Annual Driven by economic growth Rough rule of thumb ± Developed economies: electric growth rates proximately equal to economic growth rates approximately equal to economic growth rates ± Developing economies: electric growth rates approximately twice that of economic growth rates Seasonal Changes Due to Weather Changes in usage (e.g., lighting, air conditioning) 5
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a Small Extent S Electricit Prices so far WEEKLY AND DAILY DEMAND VARIATIONS Weekly Variations Driven by Business Day vs. Holiday/Weekend Daily Variations Driven by Time of Day, Weather, and to Small Extent Spot Electricity Prices (so far) pot y ( ) 6
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HOURLY ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN NEW ± ENGLAND DURING TYPICAL SUMMER AND± WINDER MONDAYS AND SUNDAYS± De ma nd (M W) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Sunday-Winter Monday-Winter Monday-Summer Sunday-Summer unday-Summer 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Ending 7
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ng pe ma e pea year ANNUAL LOAD DURATION CURVE MegaWatt Area is the amount of MWh consumed during the peak hour of the year Area is the amount of MWh consumed uri the nulti t k hour of the 8 8760 Hours 1 during the penultimate peak hour of the year 2
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USEFUL FACTS REGARDING DEMAND VARIATIONS Demand is an Empirically Determined Probability Distribution Usually with a “Long Tail” Lognormal type shape Sometimes modeled as a Gamma Distribution Summer Peaks are More Pronounced Than Winter Peaks MW Pr ob ab il it y 9
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SIMPLE DEMAND± CALCULATION± •± Problem What is the amount of generation capacity needed to supply 20 GW of peak load? If the system’s load factor is .65, what is the average amount of demand? Assumptions 3% transmission losses and 6% distribution losses 20% capacity factor (amount of extra capacity needed beyond system peak to account for outages - to be discussed below) 10
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SIMPLE DEMAND CALCULATION (Con’t) Solution Generation Capacity = 1.20 *[20 GW + 20 GW* 0.09] = 26.2 GW Load Factor = Average Demand/Peak Demand Average Demand = 0.65*[20 GWh] = 13.0 GWh 11
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the load duration curve ANNUAL LOAD DURATION CURVE AND LOAD FACTOR MegaWatt The load factor is the ratio of the area under e load duration curve 12 8760 Hours with the area in the box
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13
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This note was uploaded on 02/24/2012 for the course MECHANICAL 2.650J taught by Professor Johnc.wright during the Fall '10 term at MIT.

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MIT22_081JF10_lec06b -...

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