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MIT22_081JF10_lec21a - System Dynamics Sustainable Energy...

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System Dynamics & Sustainable Energy Presented at: MIT ESD.166J: Sustainable Energy © 2007 ESS, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Nov. 23, 2010 Presented by: Katherine Dykes PhD Candidate, MIT Engineering Systems Division
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System Dynamics and Sustainable Energy: Outline Introduction to System Dynamics Prof. Jay Forrester System Dynamics in History Fundamentals of System Dynamics SD Basics Fundamental SD Models © 2007 ESS, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SD Models and Energy World Dynamics Electric Utilities SD models and Renewables Some Previous Models Simple Diffusion Model Example
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Introduction to System Dynamics Jay Forrester and the Whirlwind Project 1946-1956: Semi Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) program and systems engineering coincident-current random-access magnetic computer memory 1956: Becomes Professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management © 2007 ESS, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Photo by Aboh24 on Wikimedia Commons.
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Introduction to System Dynamics The Early Days of System Dynamics (1956- 1969) Consulting with General Electric factory workforce management Digital Equipment Corporation Board Member from 1957: issues of fast growth and collapse with high- technology firms © 2007 ESS, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Industrial Dynamics Published in 1961 Urban Dynamics (1969) In conjunction with Mayor John Collins of Boston (group model building) National attention with many critics Limits to Growth and World Dynamics (1971) In conjunction with the Club of Rome International attention with many critics
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System Dynamics and Sustainable Energy: Outline Introduction to System Dynamics Prof. Jay Forrester System Dynamics in History Fundamentals of System Dynamics SD Basics Fundamental SD Models © 2007 ESS, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SD Models and Energy World Dynamics Electric Utilities SD models and Renewables Some Previous Models Simple Diffusion Model Example
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Fundamentals of System Dynamics Basics of System Dynamics Modeling – A system of Differential Equations solved using numerical techniques at a sequence of time-steps with complex feedback relationships between system variables Key Components are: © 2007 ESS, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Simulation model (not optimization model) Breaks down assumptions related to optimization (rationality of decision-makers, monetized / utilitarian value maximization) Often involves economic, technical AND social phenomena
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Fundamentals of System Dynamics Key Components are: – Goal-seeking behavior that drives model decision- making Technical systems behave according to physical characteristics Economic and social systems can behave © 2007
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