MIT22_081JF10_lec24a

MIT22_081JF10_lec24a - Why so little progress on...

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Unformatted text preview: Why so little progress on international climate negotiations? John Reilly Cited reports and reprints at: http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/ The State of Affairs • The Kyoto Framework of binding commitments with option of international trading is for all practical purposes dead. – Proximate cause—US withdrawal – But Japan, Canada, Russia, Australia while ratifying are not fully committed—If US had stayed in? – Developing country and Annex I/B designations became a near impenetrable wall to coverage expansion. • Overriding issue. – Negotiating both about how much to do overall, and how to share the burden. – Particularly with trading it is very complex to estimate whether a country might gain or lose from a particular commitment and it depends on what other’s commitment are and whether they live up to them The State of Affairs II • The success of international negotiations depend on the negotiators ability to implement measures within their own countries to achieve agreed reductions – Hard for negotiators to negotiate both internationally and with domestic actors that need to pass domestic legislation. ost successful international agreements ratify or codify what • Most successful international agreements ratify or codify what countries are already doing. • Copenhagen finally accepted this fact, and included a list of what countries were willing to commit (kind of) to do. – Nowhere near achieving the 2 degree target. – Most commitments highly conditional. E.g. US, – A step backward or forward? State of Affairs III • Copenhagen finally, more or less, was an admission that the Kyoto Framework was not workable....
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This note was uploaded on 02/24/2012 for the course MECHANICAL 2.650J taught by Professor Johnc.wright during the Fall '10 term at MIT.

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MIT22_081JF10_lec24a - Why so little progress on...

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