week3 - PMBOK 145-151 165-174 G&L 127-147 Estimating:...

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Estimating : process of forecasting or approximating the time (days, weeks, months) and cost ($, staff hours, staff days, capital, labor) of completing project deliverables. Task of balancing the expectations of stakeholders and the need for control while the project is implemented. Types of estimates: Top down (macro): analogy uses factored cost of previous similar projects), group consensus, or mathematical relationships Bottom up (micro): estimates elements of the work break down structure. parametric: data and experienced based Range: estimate range of time expected to complete the task, pessimistic, optimistic, likely Quality of estimates effect Decisions, work schedule, project duration and cost, cash flow, whether the project is worth pursuing, measurement in project performance, baseline Factors influencing quality of estimates: planning horizon: activities closer are more accurate, while those further out have more uncertainty project duration: longer projects are less accurate. Especially with rapid changes in technology People: Skills of estimator, skill of team members, new team members add uncertainty, synergy Project structure and organization: Dedicated team (efficient) vs matrix team (lower cost more time) Padding estimates: padding raises cost and decreases accuracy (risk should be manged separately) Organizational culture: culture preference (time, cost, estimate specifications) Other: holiday, vacation, resources, funds, equipment Estimating guidelines Have people familiar with task make estimate ( subject mater experts: SME ) Use multiple people to make estimates (larger sample size more certainty) Base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods, and normal level of resource. Use consistent time units in estimating task times
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This note was uploaded on 02/25/2012 for the course PJM 6000 taught by Professor Georgepatterson during the Summer '11 term at Northeastern.

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week3 - PMBOK 145-151 165-174 G&L 127-147 Estimating:...

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