UTECH - DS TUTORIAL WORKSHEET #3 &4 - Forecasting

UTECH - DS TUTORIAL WORKSHEET #3 &4 - Forecasting -...

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UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, JAMAICA FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DECISION SCIENCE TUTORIAL WORKSHEET #6 – FORECASTING 1.  Refer to the gasoline sales time series data below: MOVING AVERAGE CALCULATIONS - GASOLINE SALES BY WEEK WEEK TIME SERIES VALUE (Sales (1000 of gallons 3 - WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST 4 - WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST 5 - WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 19 5 18 21 6 16 20 7 20 19 8 18 18 9 22 18 10 20 20 11 15 20 12 22 19 a. Compute 4 – and 5 – week moving averages for the time series. b. Compute the MSE for the 4 – and 5 – week moving averages forecasts. c. What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data to use in  the moving average computation?  Remember that the MSE for the 3- week moving average is 10.22. d. Use Excel to do the calculations. 2. Using the same gasoline sales time series data above, show the exponential  smoothing forecasts using  ą = 0.3 and  ą = 0.4  .  Using the mean squared  error criterion, would you prefer a smoothing constant of  ą = 0.3 or  ą  =  0.4?   Why? 3. Refer again to the gasoline sales time series data above.
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UTECH - DS TUTORIAL WORKSHEET #3 &4 - Forecasting -...

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