Unformatted text preview: one, for simplicity), and the infection times of different pairs of individuals are independent of each other. Let the duration of the epidemic be denoted by 1 2 1-+ + + = N U U U T where U i is the amount of time spent with exactly i individuals infected. 1. (3 points) What is the distribution of U i for each possible value of i ? Justify your answer. 2. (2 points) Calculate E[T]. 3. (3 points) Does the expected duration of the epidemic increase or decrease as a function of N? Hint: Find an asymptotic expression for the expected duration, after using the identity . 1 1 1 ) ( 1 -+ =-K N K N K N K...
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- Fall '11
- Probability, Transmission and infection of H5N1, susceptible individual, epidemic increase