157 help - HOMEWORK 2 Due Wednesday, Oct. 26th in class...

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HOMEWORK 2 ARE157 Due Wednesday, Oct. 26th in class Fal 2011 (REMINDER- Midterm is Wed, Nov. 2nd) 1. (22) US sales of new car dealers for the past three calendar years are shown below. We wil predict sales for 2009 and 2010 (one step ahead), using 8 dif erent data smoothing models. source: ht p:/ www.census.gov/retail/ Monthly Retail and Food Service sales, item category 44111 not seasonal y adjusted. a. (8) Generate monthly forecasts for 2009 and 2010, using the 8 models listed below For the exponential smoothing models, I have assumed the initial forecast ("F1") for Jan 09 is the average of the last 3 months of 2008, as shown in the chart. Note: we are not forecasting values for 2008; We just need the 2008 data to begin some of our forecasts Year Month # Single-family for 2009. Your entries should start at Jan 2009. units 2008 Jan 49,753 2008 Feb 51,488 2008 Mar 57,088 2008 Apr 53,881 2008 May 55,434 2008 Jun 49,562 2008 Jul 50,324 2008 Aug 51,554 Forecasts Er ors MSE MAD 2008 Sep 44,472 Moving averages Exponential smoothing Moving averages Exponential smoothing Moving averages Exponential smoothing Moving averages Exponential smoothing 2008 Oct 39,432 3 mo SMA 3 mo wtd MA 12mo SMA a = 1 a=.8 a=.5 a=.2 a=0 3 mo SMA 3 mo wtd MA 12mo SMA a = 1 a=.8 a=.5 a=.2 a=0 3 mo SMA 3 mo wtd MA 12mo SMA a = 1 a=.8 a=.5 a=.2 a=0 3 mo SMA 3 mo wtd MA 12mo SMA a = 1 a=.8 a=.5 a=.2 a=0 2008 Nov 34,709 (.6, .3, .1) (.6, .3, .1) (.6, .3, .1) (.6, .3, .1) 2008 Dec 38,872 2009 Jan 36,231 37671 37679 48047 37671 37671 37671 37671 37671 -1,440 -1,448 -11,816 -1,440 -1,440 -1,440 -1,440 -1,440 2,073,600 2,096,994 139,627,703 2,073,600 2,073,600 2,073,600 2,073,600 2,073,600 1,440 1,448 11,816 1,440 1,440 1,440 1,440 1,440 2009 Feb 35,479 36604 36871 46921 38872 38632 38272 37911 37671 -1,125 -1,392 -11,442 -3,393 -3,153 -2,793 -2,432 -2,192 1,265,625 1,937,942 130,909,829 11,512,449 9,940,148 7,798,056 5,915,597 4,804,864 1,125 1,392 11,442 3,393 3,153 2,793 2,432 2,192 2009 Mar 40,752 36861 36044 45587 36231 36711 37251 37575 37671 3,891 4,708 -4,835 4,521 4,041 3,501 3,177 3,081 15,142,475 22,166,206 23,372,390 20,439,441 16,328,388 12,255,251 10,092,312 9,492,561 3,891 4,708 4,835 4,521 4,041 3,501 3,177 3,081 2009 Apr 39,630 37487 38718 44225 35479 35725 36365 37156 37671 2,143 912 -4,595 4,151 3,905 3,265 2,474 1,959 4,591,020 831,744 21,115,557 17,230,801 15,245,651 10,659,409 6,121,032 3,837,681 2,143 912 4,595 4,151 3,905 3,265 2,474 1,959 2009 May 41,074 38620 39552 43038 40752 39747 38559 37875 37671 2,454 1,523 -1,964 322 1,327 2,515 3,199 3,403 6,020,480 2,318,006 3,855,660 103,684 1,761,761 6,327,426 10,232,690 11,580,409 2,454 1,523 1,964 322 1,327 2,515 3,199 3,403 2009 Jun 42,647 40485 40609 41841 39630 39653 39094 38226 37671 2,162 2,038 806 3,017 2,994 3,553 4,421 4,976 4,672,803 4,155,075 649,770 9,102,289 8,962,016 12,621,811 19,544,234 24,760,576 2,162 2,038 806 3,017 2,994 3,553 4,421 4,976 2009 Jul 45,749 41117 41873 41265 41074 40790 40084 38796 37671 4,632 3,876 4,484
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157 help - HOMEWORK 2 Due Wednesday, Oct. 26th in class...

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