POL 221 final exam Q4

POL 221 final exam Q4 - has never done what evidence would...

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4. Is China likely to democratize any time soon? What would the modernization theory predict and is this prediction supported by empirical evidence? -Very hard to predict the future of Chinese politics and political regimes. Most people predict that in the next 30 years a gradual or sudden change to the PRC must take place to ensure the Chinese power -The modernization theory would suggest that China is in need of and would have to follow the path to democracy to achieve economical growth and potential. Many leaders in China believe this as well, that economic growth depends on political reform -However, empirical evidence shows that China has never followed the “path dependency” approach to political reform and decisions. Everyone thought they were too individualistic to embrace communism, too nationalism to ally with Russia, etc. China
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Unformatted text preview: has never done what evidence would show or predict-Sudden or rapid democratization could happen soon as a result of crisis of dictatorship, collapse of authoritarian rule; both situations leave China with great democratic potential. The problem is that with a collapse of government, a smooth and uncomplicated path to a new regime rarely happens.-China has great religious tolerance and its nationalism could support democracy. -Popular mobilization would be the result of China not choosing to progress forward to a democratic regime, and the possibility of hostile or military overthrow by the people could occur if China yields to the demands to a ever progressing nation. -Hard to say “when” or “why” China will democratize -A gradual reform without the pressure of morality as core focus from foreign policies (United States)....
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