MGSC 272 Final Review 1 W10

# MGSC 272 Final Review 1 W10 - MGSC 272 Final Review W09...

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MGSC 272 Final Review W09 Question 1 The following data represents quarterly sales in thousands of dollars of sports equipment at a mountain resort. Y = original data, T = Trend, S = Seasonal index. The trend line for the data is given by T t = 152 + 3.6 t . (1) Find the seasonally adjusted value for the 1 st quarter of 2004. Interpret the seasonally adjusted value.

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(2) Calculate a forecast for the first quarter of 2006 based on trend and seasonal effects. Determine the magnitude of the error term if this forecast is compared to the actual value. (3) Calculate the deseasonalized percent of trend for the third quarter of 2005. Which time series components are contained in this value? (4) The trend line for the data is given by T t = 152 + 3.6 t . Calculate a forecast for the first quarter of 2008. (5) Calculate the random component for the 2 nd quarter of 2002.
Question 2 In the following spreadsheet, column Y contains time series data and column F contains a forecast based on a time series model. (1) Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these data.

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(2) Explain why the mean error t e n is not a useful measure of forecast error. Question 3 The following worksheet shows LSAT scores for random sample of students admitted to six law schools. The ANOVA output is as follows:
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MGSC 272 Final Review 1 W10 - MGSC 272 Final Review W09...

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