ECON 338 old midterm questions

ECON 338 old midterm questions - e) Does your decision in...

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3. Quarterly data on electricity consumption are given below as a time series. The value for x was obtained using SOLVER to make the sum of the seasonal index numbers equal to 4. a) Use the method (KMacK) discussed in class to derive a multiplicative model from the additive model using indicator variables for the quarters. b) Use the model to predict the next four quarters. c) Predict the next four quarters using the additive model using indicator variables for the quarters. d) Decide which model is better, using the SSE criterion for quarters 13 to 16.
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Unformatted text preview: e) Does your decision in d) match what you might have suspected by looking at the graph of the first 12 values of the time series? DATA AND PRELIMINARY COMPUTATIONS FROM EXCEL t q1 q2 q3 elec 1 1 99 2 1 88 3 1 93 4 111 5 1 120 6 1 108 7 1 111 8 130 9 1 139 x 1 1 127 85.3912 2 1 1 1 131 1 2 152 1 3 1 160 1 4 1 148 1 5 1 150 1 6 170...
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