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answers to 2009 Midterm examination ECON 338

# answers to 2009 Midterm examination ECON 338 - 1 The data...

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1. The data are three years of quarterly electricity production in Australia. The ratio-to- moving-average method has been used, but some numbers are missing, indicated by asterisks. Not too surprisingly, the forecasts for the following year are not very good, since only three years of data were used. a) Find the missing numbers. See highlighted answers. b) Show the computation for 1.006842, the second number in the rough column. ( 0.996236 + 1.017448)/2 c) In the graph, are the predicted values shown as Series 1 or Series 2? Justify your answer . Since the predicted values are greater then the real values, the predicted values are series 1 (in black). 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Series1 Series2 d) State what a weighted average is and show why the numbers in the MA column are weighted moving averages. A k-point weighted moving average of data is a weighted average of the form , where the weights have the property that they are all between 0 and 1, and . The numbers in the MA column are all of the form .

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