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The data are three years of quarterly electricity production in Australia.
The ratioto
movingaverage method has been used, but some numbers are missing, indicated by
asterisks.
Not too surprisingly, the forecasts for the following year are not very good,
since only three years of data were used.
a)
Find the missing numbers.
See highlighted answers.
b)
Show the computation for
1.006842, the second number in the
rough
column.
(
0.996236 +
1.017448)/2
c)
In the graph, are the predicted values shown as Series 1 or Series 2?
Justify your
answer
.
Since the predicted values are greater then the real values, the predicted
values are series 1 (in black).
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Series1
Series2
d)
State what a weighted average is and show why the numbers in the MA column
are
weighted
moving averages.
A kpoint weighted moving average of data
is a
weighted average of the form , where the weights have the property that they are
all between 0 and 1, and .
The numbers in the MA column are all of the form .
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This note was uploaded on 02/28/2012 for the course ECON 338 taught by Professor Kmackenzie during the Spring '12 term at McGill.
 Spring '12
 KMackenzie

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