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2009 midterm examination ECON 338

2009 midterm examination ECON 338 - 1 The data are three...

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1. The data are three years of quarterly electricity production in Australia. The ratio-to- moving-average method has been used, but some numbers are missing, indicated by asterisks. Not too surprisingly, the forecasts for the following year are not very good, since only three years of data were used. a) Find the missing numbers. b) Show the computation for 1.006842, the second number in the rough column. c) In the graph, are the predicted values shown as Series 1 or Series 2? Justify your answer. d) State what a weighted average is and show why the numbers in the MA column are weighted moving averages. t Yt MA ratio-to- MA rough rhohat Y~ ̀ 1 1254 0.99497 8 0.9890 1267.93 1 2 1290 1.00684 2 1.0008 1288.96 1 3 1379 1352.37 5 1.01968758 7 1.02877 5 1.0226 1348.51 4 4 1346 1420.62 5 0.94747030 4 0.99353 1 0.9876 1362.93 6 5 1535 1488.25 1.03141273 3 4.02412 5 0.9890 1552.05 3 6 1555 1560.87 5 0.99623608 6 1.0008 1553.74 8 7 1655 1594.62 5 1.03786156 6 1.0226 1618.41 3 8 1651 1588.12 5 1.03959071 2 0.9876 1671.77 3 9 1500 1564.87 5 0.95854301 5 0.9890 1516.66 4 10 1538 1511.62 5 1.01744811 1.0008 1536.76 1 11 1486 1.0226 1453.14 9 12 1394 0.9876 1411.54 t actual predicte d Intercept 1338.668 13 1409 ******* ** X Variable ******* * 14 1387 1612.50 5 15 1543 1667.53 8 16 1502 1629.63 6
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2. The same data are to be used as in question 1. The additive model is to be used, but please note that there is a twist.
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