Lecture 6 Outline

Lecture 6 Outline - omitted variable bias 3 The message...

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Economics 134 Professor Christina Romer Spring 2012 Professor David Romer LECTURE 6 DOES MONETARY POLICY MATTER? FEBRUARY 2, 2012 I. M ONEY -O UTPUT R EGRESSIONS A. The Issue: Determining the Effects of Monetary Changes B. A Simple “Model” of the Determination of GDP Growth 1. The model 2. Comments C. Estimating the Parameters of the Model Using a Regression D. The Results of a Typical Money-Output Regression 1. Specification 2. Results 3. Comments E. Discussion and Assessment 1. Possible problems 2. The general issue:
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Unformatted text preview: omitted variable bias 3. The message: correlation is not causation II. T AKING “I DENTIFICATION ” S ERIOUSLY A. Controlled Experiments, Random Assignment, and Natural Experiments B. Friedman and Schwartz’s Key Episodes C. Digression: A Little Bit About “Instrumental Variables” D. Friedman and Schwartz’s Results E. Discussion and Assessment F. A Little Bit about Reading Regression Results 1. Coefficient estimates, standard errors, and t-statistics 2. Some examples 3. A caution...
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