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Lecture 1 Slides - Economics 210c/236a Fall 2011 Christina...

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L ECTURE 1 Overview of U.S. Macroeconomic History and Data August 31, 2011 Economics 210c/236a Christina Romer Fall 2011 David Romer
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I. C HRISTINA R OMER : “S PURIOUS V OLATILITY IN H ISTORY U NEMPLOYMENT D ATA
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1/1/1890 1/1/1898 1/1/1906 1/1/1914 1/1/1922 1/1/1930 1/1/1938 1/1/1946 1/1/1954 1/1/1962 1/1/1970 1/1/1978 1/1/1986 1/1/1994 1/1/2002 Percent Inconsistent Unemployment Data From Historical Statistics of the United States
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1907 1915 1923 1931 1939 1947 1955 1963 1971 1979 1987 1995 2003 Percent Inconsistent Unemployment Data From Historical Statistics of the United States
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Inconsistent GDP Data From Martin Neil Baily, “Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior”
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Lebergott’s Methodology Unemployed = Labor Force – Employed Labor force is overestimated in recessions. Employment is underestimated. So unemployment is overestimated in recessions. Just the opposite in booms.
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More Consistent Unemployment Data From Christina Romer, ”Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data”
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From Christina Romer, ”Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data”
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Evaluation of Romer
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Implications of Findings Depression stands out more.
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