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EESA01 Lecture10-2011-compressed - EESA01Lecture10...

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EESA01 Lecture 10 Global Climate Change November 21, 2011 1 Lecture 10 – Global Climate Change
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The Greenhouse Effect 2 Lecture 10 – Global Climate Change
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What We Know: Greenhouse Gases 3 • Most greenhouse gases are both naturally and human-generated •Human activities have increased GHG emissions over past 300 years • This has enhanced the Greenhouse Effect • Different gases have different global warming potentials Lecture 10 – Global Climate Change
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Sources of CO 2 4 The decay of organic maJer (respiraMon; decomposiMon) Breathing Burning anything carbon‐based Volcanic erupMons Natural sources outweigh anthropogenic sources, but it is human acMvity that has increased the overall pool of CO 2 in the atmosphere removal from lithosphere and into atmosphere (shiSed fluxes) Increase from 280 ppm in 1700’s to ~390 ppm today Lecture 10 – Global Climate Change
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Recent Trends 5 Figure 14.12 Lecture 10 – Global Climate Change
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Feedbacks are Important 6 Possible posiMve feedbacks: 1. Increased temperatures result in increased evaporaMon, which increases water vapour (GHG), which increases temperature… 2. Increased temperatures results in increased soil gas emissions, which could increase temperatures… 3. Aerosols? White, black, or haze… Possible negaMve feedbacks: 1. Increased temperatures result in increased evaporaMon, which increases cloud cover, which decreases temperature 2. Increased temperatures and weJer condiMons promote soil formaMon, sequestering more carbon Lecture 10 – Global Climate Change
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RadiaMve Forcing is Key Measure 7 A measure of the influence of a climaMc factor (ice, albedo, etc) has in altering net energy of the Earth‐ atmosphere PosiMve forcing = warmer NegaMve forcing = cooler Today: +1.6 W m ‐2 compared to pre‐ industrial Variations in solar input ~ 0.12 W m -2 Lecture 10 – Global Climate Change
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How do We Measure Past Temperatures and Predict Future Ones? 8 We only have ACTUAL measurements of temperature and other climaMc factors (rainfall) for a few hundred years at best There are several methods for figuring out paleoclimate by using proxies Tree‐rings and coral growth rings (provide annual
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