NWOhioempapril2011

NWOhioempapril2011 - Forecasts of Employment in Northwest...

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Forecasts of Employment in Northwest Ohio by County John Hoag and Yi Li 1 Based on data collected by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, we have forecast employment levels in twenty-seven counties in Northwest Ohio 2 . The forecasts are based solely on past employment and do not account for changes in other factors such as oil prices. In the table below, we have listed the forecast for four months, including the next two months (May and June, 2011). For each month, we also list the 95% confidence interval about the forecast. We believe that 95% of the time, the true value should lie within these bounds. Generally, what do we find? For all counties except Logan and Defiance, the forecast indicates growth in employment from March to June. In the case of Logan, the forecast is very close to the zero, so the growth could easily go either way. Defiance’s situation seems to be a bit more difficult. It seems likely from these data that the corner may be turned. But the rates of growth do not appear to be large. Again, these forecasts are based solely on past employment and do not take into consideration other economic factors such as higher gas prices or the impacts of the Japanese earthquake. County
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This note was uploaded on 02/29/2012 for the course ECON 4020 taught by Professor Ellen during the Spring '12 term at Bowling Green.

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NWOhioempapril2011 - Forecasts of Employment in Northwest...

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