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Assignment_1_Fall_2011

Assignment_1_Fall_2011 - statistically significant...

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FIN 6271 DR. R. SOYER Assignment 1: US Residential Electricity Consumption The data corresponding to this assignment is given in Blackboard under session 8 in file US_ELECTRICITY_USAGE.txt. The data is in free-format and the only variable is the monthly time-series (January 1985 through August 2002; 212 observations) of the residential electricity consumption in US. In performing any statistical analysis, please use SAS PROC REG and a 5% level of significance. (a) Look at a time-series plot of the data and using the plot discuss any seasonalbehavior that you can observe from the data (you can use a spreadsheet for this purpose). (b) Obtain box plots for each monthly using SAS (as shown lecture set 1) and using the plot discuss at which months the consumption peaks and drops. (c) Create the necessary monthly seasonal indicators and a time index to develop a seasonal model using August as the reference month. Estimate the model and identify the
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Unformatted text preview: statistically significant components of the model. (d) Using the output discuss interpretation of the constant (intercept) term and the coefficients for July and November. (e) Based on your analysis, would you conclude that there exists seasonality in theresidential electricity consumption ? Would you conclude that there is any trend in theresidential electricity consumption ? Please briefly explain your reasoning. (f) Test the hypothesis that April and May coefficients are equal to each other in your model. (g) Obtain a time series plot of actual versus predicted electric usage based on your model (you can use a spreadsheet for this purpose). PLEASE SUBMIT UPLOAD YOUR TYPED REPORT (LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 3 PAGES INCLUDING THE RELEVANT SAS OUTPUTS)....
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