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Unformatted text preview: 91 Lecture V (Chapters 8&10 (7th/8thedition)) 92 Chapter 8 93 Lecture V p.3 FIN 6275 Reduces the number of inputs for diversification. Easier for security analysts to specialize. Advantages of the Single Index Model 94 Lecture V p.4 FIN 6275 Single Factor Model i= index of a securities particular return to the factor F= unanticipated movement in some macro factor; F is commonly related to security returns Assumption: a broad market index like the S&P500 is the common factor. rit=E(rit)+iFt+eit95 Lecture V p.5 FIN 6275 Asset Risk Premium Market Risk Prem i = the stocks expected return if the markets excess return is zero: (rm rf)= 0 I (rm rf)= the component of return due to movements in the market index ei = firm specific component, not due to market movements Single Index Model ritrf=i+i(rMtrf)+eit96 Lecture V p.6 FIN 6275 Let: Ri = (ri rf) Rm = (rm rf) Risk premium format Risk Premium Format Rit=i+iRMt+eit97 Lecture V p.7 FIN 6275 MAKE THE DIFFERENCE! Single index model= Regression Equation (actual returns) AssetPricing model= Expectedreturnbeta relationship Single Factor model = assumption that one common factor drives shocksin returns Rit=i+iRMt+eitrit=E(rit)+iFt+eitE(Rit)=iE(RMt)98 Lecture V p.8 FIN 6275 Expected Returns: ASSETPRICING MODEL (examples: CAPM, APT) Unexpected Returns: FACTOR MODEL Realized Returns: INDEXMODELPutting it all together 99 Lecture V p.9 FIN 6275 Security Characteristic Line Based on a timeseries regression ExcessReturns (i) SCL . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . Excessreturns on market index . . . Rit=i+iRMt+eit910 Lecture V p.10 FIN 6275 Jan. Feb. . . Dec Mean Std Dev 5.41 3.44 . . 2.43 .60 4.97 7.24 .93 . . 3.90 1.75 3.32 Excess Mkt. Ret. Excess GM Ret. Data Example 911 Lecture V p.11 FIN 6275 Estimated coefficient Std error of estimate Variance of residuals = 12.601 Std dev of residuals = 3.550 RSQR = 0.575 2.590 (1.547) 1.1357 (0.309) rGM rf = + (rm rf) Regression Results 912 Lecture V p.12 FIN 6275 Market or systematic risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market index....
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This note was uploaded on 02/29/2012 for the course FINA 6275 taught by Professor Gerganajostova during the Spring '12 term at GWU.
 Spring '12
 GerganaJostova

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