edu-catfall07-exam-p-questions

# edu-catfall07-exam-p-questions - SOCIETY OF...

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SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES/CASUALTY ACTUARIAL SOCIETY EXAM P PROBABILITY EXAM P SAMPLE QUESTIONS Copyright 2007 by the Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society Some of the questions in this study note are taken from past SOA/CAS examinations. P-09-07 PRINTED IN U.S.A. Page 1 of 83

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1. A survey of a group’s viewing habits over the last year revealed the following information: (i) 28% watched gymnastics (ii) 29% watched baseball (iii) 19% watched soccer (iv) 14% watched gymnastics and baseball (v) 12% watched baseball and soccer (vi) 10% watched gymnastics and soccer (vii) 8% watched all three sports. Calculate the percentage of the group that watched none of the three sports during the last year. (A) 24 (B) 36 (C) 41 (D) 52 (E) 60 Page 2 of 83
2. The probability that a visit to a primary care physician’s (PCP) office results in neither lab work nor referral to a specialist is 35% . Of those coming to a PCP’s office, 30% are referred to specialists and 40% require lab work. Determine the probability that a visit to a PCP’s office results in both lab work and referral to a specialist. (A) 0.05 (B) 0.12 (C) 0.18 (D) 0.25 (E) 0.35 3. You are given P[A B] = 0.7 and P[A B ] = 0.9 . Determine P[A] . (A) 0.2 (B) 0.3 (C) 0.4 (D) 0.6 (E) 0.8 Page 3 of 83

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4. An urn contains 10 balls: 4 red and 6 blue. A second urn contains 16 red balls and an unknown number of blue balls. A single ball is drawn from each urn. The probability that both balls are the same color is 0.44 . Calculate the number of blue balls in the second urn. (A) 4 (B) 20 (C) 24 (D) 44 (E) 64 5. An auto insurance company has 10,000 policyholders. Each policyholder is classified as (i) young or old; (ii) male or female; and (iii) married or single. Of these policyholders, 3000 are young, 4600 are male, and 7000 are married. The policyholders can also be classified as 1320 young males, 3010 married males, and 1400 young married persons. Finally, 600 of the policyholders are young married males. How many of the company’s policyholders are young, female, and single? Page 4 of 83
(A) 280 (B) 423 (C) 486 (D) 880 (E) 896 6. A public health researcher examines the medical records of a group of 937 men who died in 1999 and discovers that 210 of the men died from causes related to heart disease. Moreover, 312 of the 937 men had at least one parent who suffered from heart disease, and, of these 312 men, 102 died from causes related to heart disease. Determine the probability that a man randomly selected from this group died of causes related to heart disease, given that neither of his parents suffered from heart disease. (A) 0.115 (B) 0.173 (C) 0.224 (D) 0.327 (E) 0.514 Page 5 of 83

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7. An insurance company estimates that 40% of policyholders who have only an auto policy will renew next year and 60% of policyholders who have only a homeowners policy will renew next year. The company estimates that 80% of policyholders who have both an auto and a homeowners policy will renew at least one of those policies next year.
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## edu-catfall07-exam-p-questions - SOCIETY OF...

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