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UNIT XI--FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTIONS In this final unit, you will acquire the tools necessary to make basic predictions of fire behavior from the environmental assessments and input data described in earlier units. Please note the instructions to students on page 1 are somewhat different from previous units. Here you are required to use the Fire Behavior Field Guide with the workbook. A small calculator is desirable, but not necessary, for the calculations. The unit objectives on which you will be tested at the end of this unit are on page 2. Please read these objectives; then return to this text. The materials in this unit may appear to be highly technical and over-whelming upon first inspection. This should not be the case, since the system presented is relatively simple, and we will take you through it slowly, step by step. The job aids in the field guide are designed to make your assignments as easy as possible. You should have little trouble meeting the unit and course objectives. This unit will be confined primarily to initial attack fire problems. The predictions system can be applied to larger wildfires; however, the greater variety of fire environmental factors and input values on these fires complicates the process. We'll leave those calculations to the Fire Behavior Officer or the Plans Chief, both of whom have had much more intensive training and experience. What is involved in the predictions system? Page 3 breaks the job of performing a fire behavior analysis into four phases. In the earlier units, you learned to gather and assess fire environmental data using forecasts, photos, local observations, descriptions, and maps. Then you were required to determine principal inputs using tables, formulas, keys, and descriptions. This was phase two. Unit X jumped ahead to phase four, making fire behavior assessments using input and output data. This was done to give you a greater appreciation for making the calculations before actually doing them. You may never be required to do calculations on the job; however, you will be aware of their value and how to use them in fire suppression and other fire management efforts. Phase three will be covered in this unit. Here you will calculate principal outputs for fire behavior using a worksheet, tables, and other processing aids. You should note that the field guide contains all of the tables, formulas, keys, procedures, and other aids as introduced in the units for performing phases 2, 3, and 4. It is designed to give you a quick and easy reference for Unit XI, the final exam, and for future field use. Please take a few moments to study the diagram on page 3 of the workbook; then inspect the field guide. Notice how the field guide is organized into sections to help you in the various phases. When you have finished, return to the text. Please turn to page 4. We will be dealing with the fire behavior predictions model developed at
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This note was uploaded on 03/01/2012 for the course WILD 4520 taught by Professor Michealjenkins during the Spring '04 term at Utah State University.

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