361 Chap 10 Forecasting Problems

361 Chap 10 Forecasting Problems - 20 150.34 29.66 July 140...

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Chapter 11 - Demand Management and Forecasting CHAPTER 10 DEMAND MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING 6. a. F 5 = (700 + 600 + 400)/3 = 567 b. F 4 = F 3 + α (A 3 – F 3 ) = 350 + .20(600 – 350) = 400 F 5 = F 4 + α (A 4 – F 4 ) = 400 + .20(700 – 400) = 460 7. a-c. For the exponential smoothing forecast we need a beginning forecast for March and an α . For the beginning forecast use the average of the first three periods and select α = .30. Other choices will produce different answers. Month Demand 3-Mo. MA Absolute Deviation Exponential Smoothing Absolute Deviation January 110 February 130 March 150 130.00 April 170 130 40 136.00 34.00 May 160 150 10 146.20 13.80 June 180 160
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Unformatted text preview: 20 150.34 29.66 July 140 170 30 159.24 19.24 August 130 160 30 153.47 23.47 September 140 150 10 146.43 6.43 MAD 23.3 21.1 Based upon MAD, the exponential smoothing model appears to be the best. 13.a. F October = (75 + 80 + 60 + 75)/4 = 72.5 b. F October = F September + (A September F September ) = 65 + .2(75 65) = 67.0 c. y = 405/6 = 67.5 x = 21/6 = 3.5 b = 2 2 2 ) 5 . 3 ( 6 91 5 . 67 ) 5 . 3 ( 6 1485--=-- x n x y x n xy = 3.86 a = x b y-= 67.5 3.86(3.5) = 54.00 Y = a + bx = 54.0 + 3.86x d. F October = 54.00 + 3.86(7) = 81.01 11-1...
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