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Unformatted text preview: Highlights World marketed energy consumption increases by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 in the Reference case. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases by 84 percent, compared with an increase of 14 percent in the OECD countries. In the IEO2010 Reference case—which reflects a scenario assuming that current laws and policies remain unchanged throughout the projection period—world marketed energy consumption grows by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035. Total world energy use rises from 495 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2007 to 590 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035 (Figure 1). The global economic recession that began in 2007 and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on world energy demand in the near term. Total world marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2 percent in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009, as manufactur- ing and consumer demand for goods and services declined. Although the recession appears to have ended, the pace of recovery has been uneven so far, with China and India leading and Japan and the European Union member countries lagging. In the Reference case, as the economic situation improves, most nations return to the economic growth paths that were anticipated before the recession began. The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2007 to 2035 occurs in nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 1 (non- OECD nations). Total non-OECD energy consumption increases by 84 percent in the Reference case, compared with a 14-percent increase in energy use among the OECD countries. Strong long-term growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the emerging economies of non-OECD countries drives the fast-paced growth in energy demand. In all the non-OECD regions combined, economic activity—as measured by GDP in purchasing power parity terms—increases by 4.4 percent per year on average, compared with an average of 2.0 percent per year for OECD countries. The IEO2010 Reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources over the 2007-2035 projection period (Figure 2). Fossil fuels (liquid fuels and other petroleum, 2 natural gas, and coal) are expected to continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. Although liquid fuels remain the largest source of energy, the liquids share of world U.S. Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2010 1 495 543 590 639 687 739 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 200 400 600 800 OECD Non-OECD Figure 1. World marketed energy consumption, 2007-2035 (quadrillion Btu) 1990 2000 2007 2015 2025 2035 50 100 150 200 250 History Projections Liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables Nuclear Figure 2. World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990-2035 (quadrillion Btu) 1 Current OECD member countries (as of March 10, 2010) are the United States, Canada, Mexico, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Den- mark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal,...
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This note was uploaded on 03/06/2012 for the course CHEM 311 taught by Professor Vincentwilding during the Fall '11 term at BYU.
- Fall '11