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41731 - Epidemiology and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes...

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The findings and conclusions in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes Edward Gregg, PhD Epidemiology and Statistics Branch Division of Diabetes Translation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta, GA
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Prevalence of Total Diabetes (Diagnosed Diabetes and Undiagnosed Diabetes) in the U.S. Adult Population, Age ≥ 20, 2005-2006 According to Alternative Definitions of Undiagnosed Diabetes 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 FPG A1c FPG or A1c FPG or 2-hr Diagnosed Undiagnosed 21.5 million 27.0 million 19.7 million 22.4 million (> 126 mg/dl) (> 6.5%) (> 126 mg/dl OR > 6.5%) (> 126 mg/dl OR 2hPG > 200) Sources: Cowie et al., Diab Care, 2009; unpublished analyses, Bullard et al.; NIDDK, CDC
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Men Women Percent Total Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Narayan et al, JAMA, 2003 Estimated lifetime risk of developing diabetes for individuals born in the United States in 2000
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Projected Total Number of Adults with Diabetes (Diagnosed or Undiagnosed) Under Scenarios of No further Increase Continued Increased Incidence Rate 20 40 60 80 100 120 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Millions of Adults Current Trends No Further Increase Boyle et al., Pop Health Metrics, 2010
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Projected Prevalence of Diabetes (Diagnosed or Undiagnosed) Under Scenarios of No further Increase Continued Increased Incidence Rate 0 10 20 30 40 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Prevalence (%) Current Trends No Further Increase Boyle et al., Pop Health Metrics, 2010
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Factors Influencing Future Incidence and Prevalence Estimates Prevalence in year 2010 (number and proportion of adults with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, pre-diabetes). Incidence (Rate of new cases into the future). Mortality rates Age distribution of the population. Census projection of population growth. Migration
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Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes
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Factors Causally Associated with Factors Causally Associated with Increased Diabetes Incidence in Individuals Increased Diabetes Incidence in Individuals Modifiable Modifiable and and Prim Prim e e Targets for Individual-Level Targets for Individual-Level Interventions Interventions Factors Explaining Factors Explaining Population Trends Population Trends in the Disease in the Disease Types of Risk Factors
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Prevalence of Total Diabetes (Diagnosed Diabetes and Undiagnosed Diabetes) in the U.S. Adult Population, Age ≥ 20, 2003-2006 Sources: Cowie et al., Diab Care, 2010; NIDDK, CDC 0 5 10 15 20 25 Total 20-39 yrs 40-59 yrs 60-74 yrs 75+ yrs Prevalence (%) Age Group Undiagnosed Diagnosed
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0 5 10 15 20 Non-Hispanic whites Asian Americans Hispanic/Latino Americans Non-Hispanic blacks American Indians/Alaska Natives Percent Estimated Age-Adjusted * Prevalence of Diagnosed Diabetes in People Aged 20 Years or Older, by Race/Ethnicity, United States, 2007 *Based on the 2000 US standard population CDC, National Diabetes Fact Sheet, 2007
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Migration Studies: Association Between Westernization and Diabetes Prevalence in Susceptible Populations 0 10 20 30 40 195 2 200 0 R ural U r ban Tradit ion a l W est ernize d Ru r a l S i n gapore Tai w a n Rural I nd i a Urba n In
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