PeakOil-AS222d - Peak Oil and Climate Change AS222d 20 May...

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Peak Oil and Climate Change 1999 - ~$10/b 2008 - ~$147/b James W. Murray School of Oceanography University of Washington IEA World Energy Outlook - Nov 2008 (NEW) “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable — environmentally, economically, socially. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution.” with special acknowledgement to David Rutledge (Cal Tech) AS222d 20 May 2009 284 Mary Gates
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Conclusions Evidence is strong suggesting that we are reaching the time when the supply of fossil fuel energy (oil + gas + coal) will not meet the demand. Peak Oil has occurred or will occur soon. Why? existing oil fields are declining at ~5-7% New discoveries are not keeping up. Coal Reserves may be significantly less than assumed by the IPCC. Implication - For the way we live (The End of Surburbia) - For CO2 Production and Global Warming We know enough to see that Resource Limitation needs to be an IPCC Scenario
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Background geology: Source rocks (Marine Carbon - plankton), Migration from source rocks to reservoir rocks Oil and Gas Traps
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Requirements for oil and gas to occur. Almost all of the world has been considered. When an area of the world is shown as unexplored for oil it is because geologists have decided that it is not prospective
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Outline The 4 th UN IPCC Assessment Report SRES Scenarios Oil Reserves Hubbert’s peak The history of US oil production How much oil and gas will the world produce? The Coal Question Discussion Future carbon-dioxide levels and temperatures Summary
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The UN Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change publishes assessment reports that reflect the scientific consensus on climate change The 4 th report was released in 2007 Over one thousand authors Over one thousand reviewers Nobel Prize Updated measurements show that the global temperature is rising 0.013 C per year for the last 50 years Report discusses climate simulations for fossil-fuel carbon- emission scenarios There are 40 scenarios , each considered to be equally valid, with story lines and different government policies, population projections, and economic models
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7 0 40 80 2000 2050 2100 Annual Oil Production, Gb A1 AIM A1 ASF A1 Image A1 Message A1 Minicam A1 Maria A1C AIM A1C Message A1C Minicam A1G AIM A1G Message A1G Minicam A1V1 Minicam A1V2 Minicam A1T AIM A1T Message A1T Maria A2 ASF A2 AIM A2G Image A2 Message A2 Minicam A2-A1 Minicam B1 Image B1 AIM B1 ASF B1 Message B1 Maria B1 Minicam B1T Message B1High Message B1High Minicam B2 Message B2 AIM B2 ASF B2 Image B2 Maria B2 Minicam B2High Minicam B2C Maria Oil Production in the IPCC Scenarios Gb = billions of barrels 1 barrel = 42 gallons = 159 liters In 13 scenarios, oil production is still rising in 2100 In none of the scenarios did oil production decrease because of resource limitation. None consider Peak Oil!
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PeakOil-AS222d - Peak Oil and Climate Change AS222d 20 May...

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