lec-35 - Administration 1. Midterm regrades due by November...

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Unformatted text preview: Administration 1. Midterm regrades due by November 28th after lecture. Administration 1. Midterm regrades due by November 28th after lecture. 2. No class on Friday. CS70: Satish Rao: Lecture 35. How to (detect a) lie with Statistics! Simpsons paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). Simpsons paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). Interviewed 1314 English women in 197274 and again after 20 years. Simpsons paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). Interviewed 1314 English women in 197274 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Simpsons paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). Interviewed 1314 English women in 197274 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Uh oh. Simpsons paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). Interviewed 1314 English women in 197274 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Uh oh. Age group 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-54 Smoker Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Dead 2 1 3 5 11 7 27 12 51 40 Alive 53 61 121 152 95 114 103 66 64 81 Ratio 2.3 0.75 2.4 1.44 1.61 Young dont die. Simpsons paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). Interviewed 1314 English women in 197274 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Uh oh. Age group 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-54 Smoker Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Dead 2 1 3 5 11 7 27 12 51 40 Alive 53 61 121 152 95 114 103 66 64 81 Ratio 2.3 0.75 2.4 1.44 1.61 Young dont die. Smokers in sample: 174 / 202 88 % versus 582 / 782 78 % overall. Simpsons paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Simpsons paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Simpsons paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Type 1 nType1 Type 2 nType2 Mulan 3.8 2 3.4 6 Li Shang 3.7 6 3.3 2 Simpsons paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Type 1 nType1 Type 2 nType2 Mulan 3.8 2 3.4 6 Li Shang 3.7 6 3.3 2 Mulan GPA: ( 2 ( 3 . 8 )+ 6 * 3 . 4 ) / 8 = 3 . 5 Simpsons paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Type 1 nType1 Type 2 nType2 Mulan 3.8 2 3.4 6 Li Shang 3.7 6 3.3 2 Mulan GPA: ( 2 ( 3 . 8 )+ 6 * 3 . 4 ) / 8 = 3 . 5 Li Shang GPA: ( 2 ( 3 . 3 )+ 6 * 3 . 6 ) / 8 = 3 . 6 Simpsons paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA?...
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lec-35 - Administration 1. Midterm regrades due by November...

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