lec-35 - Administration 1 Midterm regrades due by November...

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Unformatted text preview: Administration 1. Midterm regrades due by November 28th after lecture. Administration 1. Midterm regrades due by November 28th after lecture. 2. No class on Friday. CS70: Satish Rao: Lecture 35. How to (detect a) lie with Statistics! Simpson’s paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). Simpson’s paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). “Interviewed” 1314 English women in 1972–74 and again after 20 years. Simpson’s paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). “Interviewed” 1314 English women in 1972–74 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Simpson’s paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). “Interviewed” 1314 English women in 1972–74 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Uh oh. Simpson’s paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). “Interviewed” 1314 English women in 1972–74 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Uh oh. Age group 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-54 Smoker Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Dead 2 1 3 5 11 7 27 12 51 40 Alive 53 61 121 152 95 114 103 66 64 81 Ratio 2.3 0.75 2.4 1.44 1.61 Young don’t die. Simpson’s paradox. Appleton, French, and Vanderpump (1996, American Statistician ). “Interviewed” 1314 English women in 1972–74 and again after 20 years. Smoker Dead Alive Total % Dead Yes 139 443 582 24 No 230 502 732 31 Total 369 945 1314 28 Uh oh. Age group 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-54 Smoker Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Dead 2 1 3 5 11 7 27 12 51 40 Alive 53 61 121 152 95 114 103 66 64 81 Ratio 2.3 0.75 2.4 1.44 1.61 Young don’t die. Smokers in sample: 174 / 202 ≈ 88 % versus 582 / 782 ≈ 78 % overall. Simpson’s paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Simpson’s paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Simpson’s paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Type 1 nType1 Type 2 nType2 Mulan 3.8 2 3.4 6 Li Shang 3.7 6 3.3 2 Simpson’s paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Type 1 nType1 Type 2 nType2 Mulan 3.8 2 3.4 6 Li Shang 3.7 6 3.3 2 Mulan GPA: ( 2 × ( 3 . 8 )+ 6 * 3 . 4 ) / 8 = 3 . 5 Simpson’s paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA? Type 1 nType1 Type 2 nType2 Mulan 3.8 2 3.4 6 Li Shang 3.7 6 3.3 2 Mulan GPA: ( 2 × ( 3 . 8 )+ 6 * 3 . 4 ) / 8 = 3 . 5 Li Shang GPA: ( 2 × ( 3 . 3 )+ 6 * 3 . 6 ) / 8 = 3 . 6 Simpson’s paradox Type 1 Type 2 Mulan 3.8 3.4 Li Shang 3.7 3.3 Who has the higher GPA?...
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lec-35 - Administration 1 Midterm regrades due by November...

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