Lecture 12 - oct

Lecture 12 - oct - Oct 12 2010 Lecture 12 Thinking and...

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Lecture 12 - Thinking and Intelligence Testing ESPN - does this ability really exist? - someone claims that he can guess which card you are looking at - if the person is just guessing their is a ratio involved and see if the person is doing it about chance - institute scientiFc controls: shuf±e deck? don’t allow mirrors in room? - in every recorded claim of ESPN with scientiFc controls the phenomenon disappeared - the people say “of course it disappeared they are very sensitive and they don’t like to be intimidated and if you put a grump scientist in the room and they can’t follow through” - his professor went to see the mona lisa - he saw his friend from college who he hasn’t seen in 15 years - running into each other ANYWHERE at ANY TIME we would have been just as surprised - if at any point over the entire week we met, the probability is getting larger - if i ran into you in new york i would have been just as surprised - if on any trip he would be just as surprised - in fact if it had been anyone in that dorm in college i would have been just as surprised - even if it was in the place where i teach i would have been so surprised - so the miraculous aspect of this event is not really that amazing - the odds are you will run into someone somewhere who you haven’t seen in a while - must think of these situations in the right CONTEXT tossing a coin 9 times in a row is unlikely
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Lecture 12 - oct - Oct 12 2010 Lecture 12 Thinking and...

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