Chapter 8 _1_

Chapter 8 _1_ - Travel Demand and Traffic Forecasting ECI...

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ECI 161 Winter 2012 Travel Demand and Traffic Forecasting
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 s To date, we learned to solve the following two types of traffic problems s Given traffic demand , analyze the transportation system performance for a given system configuration s Given traffic demand , design the transportation system to achieve a certain level of service Background
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 How about these problems? s Walmart is building a supercenter in Davis, how many parking spots does it need to provide for it shopping customers? s There have been built new homes in West Village in Davis, how many lane miles is needed to accommodate traffic in this new neighborhood? s What is traffic impact of West Village on Russell blvd. and highway 113? 3
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 Example: transportation demand analysis for Davis Baseline: 0 Emp Design: 500 Emp Baseline: 1500 Emp 25,000 Students Design: 1500 Emp 30,000 Students Baseline: 0 houses Design: Residential Development: 1500 Houses
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 (3500 students/1166 units) (2750 faculty, staff/700 units) 5000 Daily Person Trips (Productions) (10,000 sq ft office/service) 3200 Daily Person Trips (Attractions) Example: transportation demand analysis for Davis in 2010
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 Example: transportation demand analysis for Davis in 2010
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 7 s Travel volumes will change over time due to: s economy s individual travel preferences s travelers’ recreational/social activities s modification of a roadway network s road construction s Analysts must develop and use methodological approaches for forecasting changes in traffic volumes. Travel demand and traffic forecasting
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 Traffic Demand How do we know present or past traffic demand? s By counting traffic volume (manually or automatically e.g. inductive loop detectors) at specific locations s By conducting surveys (e.g., household survey asking detailed travel questions) 8
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 s In the short run, traffic demand may change in response to changes in: s operating conditions (e.g., bus frequency, natural or man made disasters) s transportation system (e.g., maintenance and construction activities, new bus service line) s In the long run, traffic demand may change in response to changes in: s socioecomonic conditions (e.g. population growth) s land use patterns (e.g., new residential development, new shopping malls) s transportation system (e.g., new light rail) Background 9
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 What is travel demand analysis ? Land use pattern Transportation system configuration Transportation system performance Socioeconomic conditions Travel demand and forecasting 10
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ECI 161 Winter 2012 11 Popular Traffic Detectors Traveler socioeconomics and activity patterns Trip generation Trip distribution Mode choice Route choice The “four-step” travel demand modeling process The number of trips made Origins and destinations The mode used The route followed
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Chapter 8 _1_ - Travel Demand and Traffic Forecasting ECI...

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