Lecture 7 Notes - Nicole Katzman Chapter Seven Outline...

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Nicole Katzman Chapter Seven Outline September 27, 2011 War and Peace: Bargaining and War Commitment Problems Sources of bargaining failure that led to war 1. Indivisibilities 2. Incomplete information 3. Commitment problems Problems of Commitment Even if informational problems are resolved and a deal identified, it may fall through if both sides cannot credibly commit to abide by its terms. Can states credibly promise not to use force? Promises are credible only when it is in the self-interest of actors to carry them out. PD example of commitment problem Commitment problems likely when: Bargaining over issues that affect future power Power is changing exogenously If between two states there is an underlying shift in power, that can lead to commitment problems There are first strike advantages Bargaining over Goods that Influence Future Power Some goods, are particularly valuable because acquiring them will shift future balance of power Golan Heights- in Syria bordering Israel; it has a high elevation so it is a very strategically advanced location to launch bombs on Israel Weapons programs Surrendering such goods increases vulnerability to future attacks If you give up some good that will give one side more power, the other side must agree to not use the power against them. Are the commitments credible? Sevastopol : The dissolution of the Soviet Union involved negotiating with newly independent Ukraine about Sevastopol, the Soviet’s (and now Russian’s) only warm water port and access to the Black Sea. Negotiations led to the 1997 treaty, which
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This note was uploaded on 03/15/2012 for the course POLI SCI 103 taught by Professor Pevehouse during the Fall '08 term at Wisconsin.

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Lecture 7 Notes - Nicole Katzman Chapter Seven Outline...

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