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# Stat400Lec1 - STAT 400 MATH 463 Stat 400 introduce the...

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STAT 400/ MATH 463 Stat 400 introduce the basic concept about probability models and illustrate the usage of the probability models in the real world. Stat 400 will teach you about some basic statistics and how to use it to make a scientific inference. Stat 400 will illustrate how to understand some basic statistics and how to draw scientific conclusions based on those statistics Stat 400 will teach you how to model the random phenomenon using statistic models

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Why probability and statistic are so important? Data is everywhere: the latest poll of the president's popularity, the average GPA and SAT scores of UI students... Inference is needed: is drug A better than drug B? How would economists and financial advisors make decisions from unemployment and inflation information... More facts: Politicians rely on data from polls of public opinion, business decisions are based on market research data, probabilistic weather forecasting...
Importance (Continued) Two Famous Examples: Simpson’s Paradox The case of Sally Clark

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Simpson’s Paradox The admission figures for fall 1973 showed that men were more likely than women to be admitted. P.J. Bickel, E.A. Hammel and J.W. O'Connell (1975). Sex Bias in Graduate Admissions: Data From Berkeley. Science 187: 398 40
Simpson’s Paradox (Cont’d) Take a closer look

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Fishnet To illustrate this point , imagine a fishing boat with two different nets, a large mesh and a small net. A school of fish swim towards the boat and seek to pass it. The female fish try for the small-mesh challenge, while the male fish try for the easy route. The males go through and only females are caught. Judging by the final catch, preference toward female is clearly evident. However, if analyzed separately, each individual net would surely trap males more easily than females.
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