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HW C2

# HW C2 - Chapter 03 Forecasting 2 a Sales 20 0 F M A t 1 2 3...

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting 3-1 2. a. b. 1) t Y tY From Table 3–1 with n = 7, Σ t = 28, Σ t 2 = 140 50 . ) 28 ( 28 ) 140 ( 7 ) 132 ( 28 ) 542 ( 7 ) t ( t n Y t tY n b 2 2 = = = 86 . 16 7 ) 28 ( 50 . 132 n t b Y a = = = 1 19 19 2 18 36 3 15 45 4 20 80 5 18 90 6 22 132 7 20 140 28 132 542 For Sept., t = 8, and Y t = 16.86 + .50(8) = 20.86 (000) Month Sales F M A M J J A S 20 0

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Chapter 03 - Forecasting 3-2 2) 19 5 20 22 18 20 15 MA 5 = + + + + = Solutions (continued) 3) Month Forecast = F(old) + .20[Actual – F(old) ] April 18.8 = 19 + .20[ 18 – 19 ] May 18.04 = 18.8 + .20[ 15 – 18.8 ] June 18.43 = 18.04 + .20[ 20 – 18.04 ] July 18.34 = 18.43 + .20[ 18 – 18.43 ] August 19.07 = 18.34 + .20[ 22 – 18.34 ] September 19.26 = 19.07 + .20[ 20 – 19.07 ] 4) 20 5) .6 (20) + .3(22) + .1(18) = 20.4 c. Probably 5 month moving average because the data appear to vary around an average of about 19 [18.86]. d. Sales are reflective of demand (i.e., no stockouts or backorders occurred). 5. a. Annual sales are increasing by 15,000 bottles per year. b. t = 16, Y t = 80 + 15(16) = 320, which is 320,000 bottles.
Chapter 03 - Forecasting 3-3 Case: Highline Financial Services, Ltd.
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HW C2 - Chapter 03 Forecasting 2 a Sales 20 0 F M A t 1 2 3...

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