Lecture 8 Inductive Reasoning

Lecture 8 Inductive Reasoning - 1 CC2002 Semester One...

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Unformatted text preview: 1 CC2002 Semester One 2011/12 Creative and Critical Thinking Inductive Reasoning 2 Inductive Strength A Strong ( ) inductive argument is an inductive argument in which, if all the premises are true , the conclusion is more probably true than false. Most HKCC students own MP3 players. Andy is a HKCC student. ----------------------------------------------- So, Andy owns a MP3 player. The premises of an inductively strong argument therefore do not prove the claim of the conclusion with certainty. 3 Inductive Strength A Weak ( ) inductive argument is an inductive argument in which, (even) if all the premises are true, the conclusion is not more probably true than false. 10% of HKCC students own MP3 players. Andy is a HKCC student. ----------------------------------------------- So, Andy owns a MP3 player. 4 Inductive Strength vs. Deductive Validity The strong/weak distinction is a continuum ( ), i.e. it is a matter of degree ( ). We can say that one inductive argument is stronger/weaker than another inductive argument. But validity is an all-or-nothing ( ) matter, i.e. deductive arguments are either valid or invalid. All valid arguments are the same valid and all invalid arguments are the same invalid; no comparison of degree can be made. 5 Inductive Cogency ( ) Cogent ( ) = Inductively strong + all premises true = Good inductive argument ( Note that the conclusion of a cogent argument is just more probably true than false. ) Uncogent ( ) = either inductively weak or some premises false or both = Bad inductive argument The Concept of Cogency represents the standard of an inductively good argument. 6 Types of Inductive Argument 1. Inductive Generalizations ( ) 2. Statistical Arguments ) 3. Analogical Arguments/ Arguments from Analogy ( ) 7 1. Inductive Generalizations We are making a generalization if we conclude a claim about a group, the population , from a claim about some part of it, the sample . (Epstein, p.280) (population) (sample) 8 Examples of Generalization E.g 1. 2. 9...
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Lecture 8 Inductive Reasoning - 1 CC2002 Semester One...

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