Lecture 8 Inductive Reasoning

Lecture 8 Inductive Reasoning - 1 CC2002 Semester One...

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Unformatted text preview: 1 CC2002 Semester One 2011/12 Creative and Critical Thinking Inductive Reasoning 2 Inductive Strength 歸歸歸歸 A Strong ( 强 ) inductive argument is an inductive argument in which, if all the premises are true , the conclusion is more probably true than false. Most HKCC students own MP3 players. Andy is a HKCC student. ----------------------------------------------- So, Andy owns a MP3 player. The premises of an inductively strong argument therefore do not prove the claim of the conclusion with certainty. 3 Inductive Strength 歸歸歸歸 A Weak ( 强 ) inductive argument is an inductive argument in which, (even) if all the premises are true, the conclusion is not more probably true than false. 10% of HKCC students own MP3 players. Andy is a HKCC student. ----------------------------------------------- So, Andy owns a MP3 player. 4 Inductive Strength vs. Deductive Validity The strong/weak distinction is a continuum ( 强强强 ), i.e. it is a matter of degree ( 强强强强强 ). We can say that one inductive argument is stronger/weaker than another inductive argument. But validity is an all-or-nothing ( 强强强强强 ) matter, i.e. deductive arguments are either valid or invalid. All valid arguments are the same valid and all invalid arguments are the same invalid; no comparison of degree can be made. 5 Inductive Cogency ( 强强 ) Cogent ( 强强 ) = Inductively strong + all premises true = Good inductive argument ( Note that the conclusion of a cogent argument is just more probably true than false. ) Uncogent ( 强强强 ) = either inductively weak or some premises false or both = Bad inductive argument The Concept of Cogency represents the standard of an inductively good argument. 6 Types of Inductive Argument 1. Inductive Generalizations ( 强强强强 ) 2. Statistical Arguments 歸歸歸 强强 ) 3. Analogical Arguments/ Arguments from Analogy ( 强强强强 ) 7 1. Inductive Generalizations We are making a generalization if we conclude a claim about a group, the population , from a claim about some part of it, the sample . 强 (Epstein, p.280) 强强强 歸歸 (population) 强强 歸 本 (sample) 强强强强强强强强强强强强强强强强强强强 强强强强强强强强强 8 Examples of Generalization E.g 1. 强强强强强强强强强强强强强强强 2. 强强强强强强强强强强强强强 歸歸歸 强强强强强强强 歸歸歸 强强强强 9...
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This note was uploaded on 03/17/2012 for the course COMP 3868 taught by Professor Keithchan during the Spring '97 term at Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

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Lecture 8 Inductive Reasoning - 1 CC2002 Semester One...

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