Lecture03 - GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–5. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 1 GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Berwin Turlach statba@nus.edu.sg Department of Statistics and Applied Probability National University of Singapore Does randomness exist? GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 24 ”God does not play dice with the universe.” — Albert Einstein For a long time, science was dominated by deterministic thinking. The “things” with which science dealt were either the measurements made or the physical events that generated those measurements. In the earlier deterministic approach, there was always the belief that more refined measurements would lead to a better definition of the physical reality being examined. Salsburg (2001, p. 93ff) Does randomness exist? (cont.) GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 25 In the statistical approach, the measurements are modelled by probability distributions that have “parameters” and these parameters that govern the distribution of the measurements become the things of science. In this approach, the parameters of the distribution are sometimes not required to have a physical reality and can only be estimated with error, regardless of how precise the measuring system is. During the 1980s a new type of mathematical model emerged and caught the public imagination, primarily because of its name: “chaos theory”; an attempt to revive determinism at a more sophisticated level. The name suggests some form of statistical modelling with a particularly wild type of randomness. (“Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” — Edward Lorenz) Salsburg (2001, p. 93ff) Stewart, I. (1990). Does God Play Dice?: The Mathematics of Chaos , Blackwell Publishers. (2nd edition published 2002 by Wiley–Blackwell.) Does randomness exist? (cont.) GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 26 squaresolid What is “randomness”? This is a difficult question....
View Full Document

This note was uploaded on 03/19/2012 for the course SCIENCE 2900 taught by Professor Forgot during the Spring '08 term at National University of Singapore.

Page1 / 14

Lecture03 - GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 5. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online