Lecture07 - GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty...

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Unformatted text preview: GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 1 GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Berwin Turlach statba@nus.edu.sg Department of Statistics and Applied Probability National University of Singapore Can Humans produce Randomness? GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 62 Runs Experiment squaresolid Let us try to mimic a sequence of 25 coin tosses, i.e. a random sequence of 25 H’s (heads) or T’s (tails) such that square each time, each symbol has probability 1 2 , 1 2 of appearing; square which symbol appears in any “toss” is not influenced by previous “tosses”. squaresolid You were asked to write down instinctively (i.e. fairly quickly) a random sequence of 25 H’s or T’s. Can Humans produce Randomness? (cont.) GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 63 squaresolid You were asked to record your number of completed runs. squaresolid There is a belief that when people try to “act random”, too much switching takes place. squaresolid If so, there will be too many completed runs. squaresolid We tallied the class results via IVLE and will now try to judge intuitively if this is so. squaresolid We should (hopefully) show that people cannot act in a deliberately random way . Allegedly, this run experiment is actually used to test humans for loss of short term memory. Can Humans produce Randomness? (cont.) GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 64...
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Lecture07 - GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty...

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