Lecture12 - GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty...

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Unformatted text preview: GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 1 GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking Berwin Turlach statba@nus.edu.sg Department of Statistics and Applied Probability National University of Singapore How to calculate with probabilities (cont.) GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 1, 2008/2009 – 107 The Monty Hall problem Suppose you are on a game show and given a choice of three doors. Behind one is a car; behind the others are goats. You pick door No. 1, and the host, who knows what is behind the doors, opens No. 3, which has a goat. He then asks if you want to pick No. 2. Should you switch? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2L_2psS9uI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9WFKmLK0dc Woolfson (2008, Chapter 5.3) Gigerenzer (2002, Chapter 13), Lindley (2006, Chapter 12), Olofsson (2007, Chapter 2), Rosenthal (2006, Chapter 14) Morgan, J.P., Chaganty, N.R., Dahiya, R.C. and Doviak, M.J. (1991). Let’s Make a Deal: The Player’s Dilemma (with discussion), The American Statistician 45 (4): 284–289. How to calculate with probabilities (cont.)How to calculate with probabilities (cont....
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Lecture12 - GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty...

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