# Lecture15a - P vc D Sn sa'Hw‘A’ MW TL" 0...

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Unformatted text preview: P(+vc( D) Sn sa'Hw‘A’, MW: TL" 0 of‘l'o‘h if IIH (Fr (3 ad: 4. “(0.? DA“ ck! fﬂd’meu: Infants ('49:! who 00? ('v-QA.‘ luau-c IJ'. I 4'- 1—2—— ‘In '—l"" H‘“ ' (Mum - log In M "9 M u .. _ (a M...“ x: Papa “an. pm 65¢;de uL gem ML.“ ADV-v- n 51.01%": OHu—r (lugs) l) Exp‘J/I' ts/ﬂI‘lLouY‘: {mt-129m:_UNosasTannine Unesa'ramrv tr S‘rarrsriem. 'THlNl-{ING Question 5: marks] Mr. Jones has devised a gambling system for winning at roulette. When he bets. he bets on red1 and places a bet onlj.r 1ivhen the ten previous spins of the roulette have landed on a black number. He reasons that his chance of winning; is quite large since the probability of eleven consecutive spins resulting in black is small. What do you think of this system? Eli-restiml 5'. [10' marks] If a scuba diver dives too deep or for too long, she or he risks experiencing sortie severe health problemsJ commonly known “the bends” but more oorreotlv referred to as “decompression illness” IZILJHISL~ a surnrrisry term that eolriprises a. few other nasty problems beside the bends}. 1'0 allow safe dives: tables have been dEvelopr-br] which tabulate for how long one can {live to certain depths. More rewritlv, divers are more Fi'equeuLly usng dive. computers Lf] calculate 1avhether certain dive proﬁles are safe. Thiwever, it should be recognised that no matter whether tables or computers are used, there is always a probabilitj.r that a diver experiences DCT even if she or he sticks to the limits of the tablesfcoinputcss. There is some discussion whether computers are not conservative enoughl ie that the prob— aliilitg,r of experiencing DCl even when divng within the limits of the computer is too high. 'T‘here is some concern that the increasing use of dive computers leads to more divers experi— encing DUI. The July to September .‘Zﬂﬂlﬂ issue of i‘tlert Diver SE-i‘tP Edition {the magazine of Divers Alert Network SSE. Asia—Paciﬁc] featured an article by Lynn Taylor and Dr. Simon Mitchel on “DUI 3.: Dive Computers". Thev looked at the Currently available data to check if there is 8 GEMZQDD: UNDERH’l‘ANEJING UNCERTAIN“1‘Y it: STATISTICAL THINKING any evidence that dive computers ere net conservative enmigh. In their article, they nete that “in the 199? Divers ﬂiert N'etwerk date ‘5 . “Hi ef the divers ex criehcii I were diving within the iiIIIits ef the computer that the}: were h.ng . e ter eemmeiited on this fact as . . c . E, UmputCI-USEIS {who experienced DUI} dived within the devices IiJl‘IitS elec- indicates that the eigerithms used by the computers to predict DC? are inaccurate”. De you egrce with the interpretetien ef the editor er is he wrong? Just-if}r yen: answer. ...
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Lecture15a - P vc D Sn sa'Hw‘A’ MW TL" 0...

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