5.30 - 4/18/11 5.3 Forecasting 4 seasons Data Period Period...

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
4/18/11 5.3 Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition 4 seasons Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Period Demand (y) Time (x) Average Ratio Seasonal Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted Error |Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err Period 1 218 1 0.8824512 247.03914 241.41364 213.03577 4.9642333 4.9642333 24.643613 02.28% Period 2 247 2 0.9816478 251.61773 245.07942 240.58168 6.4183171 6.4183171 41.194794 02.60% Period 3 243 3 250 250.875 0.9686099 0.9711637 250.21529 248.74521 241.57231 1.4276881 1.4276881 2.0382933 00.59% Period 4 292 4 251.75 252.625 1.1558634 1.1569079 252.39693 252.41099 292.01627 -0.0162745 0.0162745 0.0002649 00.01% Period 5 225 5 253.5 255 0.8823529 0.8824512 254.97159 256.07678 225.97527 -0.9752728 0.9752728 0.951157 00.43% Period 6 254 6 256.5 257.375 0.9868868 0.9816478 258.7486 259.74256 254.97572 -0.9757223 0.9757223 0.9520341 00.38% Period 7 255 7 258.25 259.375 0.9831325 0.9711637 262.5716 263.40835 255.81262 -0.8126209 0.8126209 0.6603526 00.32% Period 8 299 8 260.5 261.875 1.1417661
Background image of page 1
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.
Ask a homework question - tutors are online