trend analysis - trend of forcast Forecasting Trend...

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4/18/11 trend of forcast Forecasting Trend adjusted exponential smoothing Alpha Beta Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Period Demand Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err Quarter 1 264.7938 264.7938 264.7938 0 0 0 00.00% Quarter 2 298.1578 264.7938 0 264.7938 33.364 33.364 1113.1565 11.19% Quarter 3 298.5335 264.7938 0 264.7938 33.7397 33.7397 1138.36736 11.30% Quarter 4 359.8719 264.7938 0 264.7938 95.0781 95.0781 9039.8451 0.26419984 Next period 264.7938 0 264.7938 Total 162.1818 162.1818 11291.369 48.91% Average 40.54545 40.54545 2822.8422 12.23% Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 75.13777 Smoothed Forecast, F t Smoothed Trend, T t Forecast Including Trend, FIT t 1 2 3 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 Forecasting Column B Forecasts and Error Analysis Time Value Enter alpha and beta (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.
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4/18/11 Trend Analysis Forecasting Trend adjusted exponential smoothing Alpha Beta Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Period Demand Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err Quarterly 1 213.0358 213.0358 213.0358 0 0 0 00.00% Quarterly 2 240.5817 213.0358 0 213.0358 27.5459 27.5459 758.776607 11.45% Quarterly 3 241.5723 213.0358 0 213.0358 28.5365 28.5365 814.331832 11.81% Quarterly 4 292.0163 213.0358 0 213.0358 78.9805 78.9805 6237.91938 27.05% Quarterly 5 225.9753 213.0358 0 213.0358 12.9395 12.9395 167.43066 05.73% Quarterly 6 254.9757 213.0358 0 213.0358 41.9399 41.9399 1758.95521 16.45% Quarterly 7 255.8126 213.0358 0 213.0358 42.7768 42.7768 1829.85462
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