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lecture1 - Goal of Stochastic Hydrology Develop analytical...

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Goal of Stochastic Hydrology Develop analytical tools to systematically deal with uncertainty and spatial variability in hydrologic systems Examples of variable driving parameters and processes include rainfall rates, soil properties, aquifer properties Examples of resulting variable hydrologic processes include water contents, piezometric heads, water flow rates, solute concentrations
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Uncertainty vs Variability Uncertainty- incomplete knowledge of the hydrologic system can result in model error and parameter error Spatial Variability- objective value (but often unknown). Magnitude of spatial variability depends on geology for example Temporal Variability- future values of rainfall, evapotranspiration etc unknown All contribute to accuracy problems when predicting the behavior of hydrologic systems
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Natural Variability It is widely recognized that natural earth materials are quite heterogeneous in their hydrologic properties However variation is not completely disordered in space. Higher than average and lower than average values tend to occur in zones Examples….
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