lec35v1up - Stat 104: Quantitative Methods for Economists...

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Unformatted text preview: Stat 104: Quantitative Methods for Economists Class 35: Model Building and Variable Selection 1 There is a lot to think about s Nonlinearity s Normality s Multicollinearity s Heteroskedasticity s Summer Vacation!!! 2 Reporting Your Regression Results 3 (this table was borrowed from James Stocks Econometrics book) BTW: Sample Sizes for Regression s Degree of freedom: In this context, a piece of information accounted for in a model. b Continuous, linear variables take up one df. b Categorical variables take up one df per category, minus one. s Linear regression: Need approximately 15 (10-20) observations er degree of freedom. per degree of freedom. b Example: You are interested in predicting cognitive functioning in a group of ICU survivors, using a standard test score, while adjusting for age, education, hospital length of stay and whether or not cognitive therapy was administered after a hospital stay. b You have a total of four degrees of freedom, so you need approximately 60 patients. 4 Dont Overfit s We have been preaching that the lower the s_e, the better (i.e. smaller prediction intervals). ut its a fine art to model building, and this is s But its a fine art to model building, and this is not exactly the case all the time. s That is, you dont want to overfit your data s You can always force s_e to be as small as you want by adding more and more variables. 5 Example s Consider the following simple data set 60 80 6 20 40 y-4-2 2 4 x Regression Fits Well 7 Looks Pretty Too 40 60 80 8 20-4-2 2 4 x Fitted values y Lets be insane now s Lets fit a 9 th order polynomial to our data (why? Because we can) s Our model is 9 2 9 1 2 9 y X X X = + + + + + L Regression Output 10 Completely Overfitted 11 Moral s A bigger model always has a smaller error sum of squares (SSE), just because a minimum taken over a larger set is smaller. s Thus least squares, taken as a criterion for model election says always choose the biggest model. But selection says always choose the biggest model. But this is silly. s You want to balance number of variables in the model (as few as possible), versus predictive ability. s Occams Razor: "the simplest explanation is more likely the correct one." 12 There are many good models s There is unlikely to be a single "best model" that we'll be able to discover as long as we work at it long enough....
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This note was uploaded on 03/27/2012 for the course STATS 104 taught by Professor Michaelparzen during the Fall '11 term at Harvard.

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lec35v1up - Stat 104: Quantitative Methods for Economists...

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