Assignment sta217 - Answer to the question number 1 Last 3...

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Answer to the question number 1 Last 3 values of ID (2009-2-10-336) 336 are added year t Sales 1997 1 50936 1998 2 67636 1999 3 81136 2000 4 98436 2001 5 124736 2002 6 157036 2003 7 201736 2004 8 227636 2005 9 256636 2006 10 281236 Least square method: Coefficient s Intercept 5702 X Variable 27093 1. i) Least square equation is: Y ' = 27093x + 5702 Interpretation of the equation: The value of 27093 indicates that sales increased at a rate of 27093 million dollar per year. The value of 5702 indicates the point in which the trend equation intercepts the Y-axis. i) The estimated sales for 2010: In 2010, t = 14. Substituting this value for t in the equation: 2. Y' = 5702+27093*14 = $ 385004 million Thus based on past sales, the estimated sales for 2010 is $ 385004 million.
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ii) Plot Net Sales and Trend line From the diagram above, we see that the straight line is the trend line which passes through original data (blue dots). Some original data are plotted over the trend line and some are plotted below trend line. Some data are on the trend line. This trend line will provide forecasted data for future.
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Answer to the question number 2 i) Determining Logarithmic Trend Equation and Plotting the Trend Line: year Imports of Carbon block Code t log(imports) Y 1990 460 1 2.662757832 1991 511 2 2.7084209 1992 642 3 2.807535028 1993 860 4 2.934498451 1994 1050 5 3.021189299 1995 1388 6 3.142389466 1996 1974 7 3.295347148 1997 2799 8 3.447002898 1998 3694 9 3.567496891 1999 4517 10 3.654850091 2000 5724 11 3.757699625 2001 8363 12 3.922362097 2002 10923 13 4.038341934 2003 13873 14 4.142170386 So, the equation is, Log Y'= Log a + Log b (t) Log a= 2.470 Log b= 0.119 The trend equation is, logY’ = 2.470+0.119t
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From the diagram above, we see that the straight line is the trend line which passes through original data (blue dots). Some original data are plotted over the trend line and some are plotted below trend line. Some data are on the trend line. This trend line will provide forecasted data for future. ii)
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Assignment sta217 - Answer to the question number 1 Last 3...

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