IN520Midterm-exam - IN520Midterm-exam Question 1(Essay...

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IN520Midterm-exam Question 1 (Essay Worth 25.00 points) 1. DESCRIBE THE PREDICTIVE ANALYTIC PROCESS OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL (AS DESCRIBED BY SHERMAN KENT IN HIS COLLECTED ESSAYS), ANALYZING THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF HIS APPROACH. Sherman Kent is considered one of the U.S. Intelligence Community architects, his dedication to the Intelligence Analysis helped to shape the U.S. Intelligence Community way of estimate the possibilities and outcomes of foreign threats or issues that can undermine the U.S. National Security. The predictive analytic process adopted by Sherman Kent had the strong determination of putting intelligence analysis and intelligence estimative as main tools to develop national security by the though analysis of facts, and the prediction of our enemies next step. Contrary to the system strength there is a very strong weakness to the process, and it was characterized by use of many specialists within the intelligence community, these entire specialists would make things more complicated due to the government bureaucratic machine and the different agencies involve in the process of analysis and prioritization. Sherman Kent original approach understood the importance of strategic intelligence analysis, because strategy is defined as the way to achieve a successful end. The National Intelligence Council or NIC is the organization responsible for overseeing the U.S. Intelligence Community estimative process, and the creation of the National Intelligence Estimates (NIE’s). The National Intelligence Council is directly subordinated
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to the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI), and the DCI is the head of the U. S. intelligence community. The NIC is the U.S. Intelligence Community center support organization charged with the planning and assessments of mid-term and long-term strategic analysis. “Among its principal functions are supporting DCI as leader of the intelligence community; providing a tasking office whereby policymakers may present requests for information to members of the intelligence community; drawing on the expertise of non-government authorities in academia and the private sector, so as to broaden the intelligence community's perspective on issues of importance; and leading in the production of NIEs and other informational products.” (1) The NIC medium and long range goals could serve booth sides of strength and weakness to the analytic process, because knowing the goals to be achieve can help the Intelligence Community managers to allocate the best personell to engage the scenarios, but on the other hand it can fix the intelligence specialist to focus only to scenarios that never will happen, making many times reality adjustment a hard task. Predictive analytics is the technique that encompasses the use of statistics and data mining in order to achieve a solid or reasonable prediction about a determined subject. The predictions are based on the present and past events that serve as parameters for future predictions. Predictions resulted by this analytic method are never approached
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  • Spring '07
  • Unknown
  • Central Intelligence Agency, Intelligence Community, National Intelligence Council, U.S. Intelligence Community

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