IN520Week#5 Contact - IN520Week#5 Contact IN 520 Week#5...

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IN520Week#5 Contact: IN 520 Week#5 Contact Week #2 Assignment : The student should note the major features of the Delphi and Scenario methods and be prepared to summarize them in a written report to the professor in Lesson 5. THE DELPHI METHOD: The Delphi Method is one of the analytic techniques employed to estimate and predict human behavior and condition. The Delphi Method of estimation and central assumptions presents the collective decision and knowledge of the field experts. The method was created by the RAND Corporation, the Delphi Method is a method used to extract and combine the knowledge of experts and use the conclusion to predict the future of a determined group or the outcome of a presented situation. (1) The Delphi Method basically starts with first round questions, directed and asked to individuals considered experts on their field. Than these experts answers are collected and tabulated, with the collective answers grouped and sent back to the experts for future modifications, or re-affirmation of their answers. In a second round, the same experts with the answers available are questioned and asked to re-evaluate the initial answer assessments of their initial answers, and possible modification. (2) This reevaluation process presented in the second round is later presented in future rounds until a general degree of acceptance, and expert consensus are reached, or until there are no more modifications to the experts answers experts.
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The Delphi Method questions are intended to give good operational concepts and measures that will help the research estimations and predictions. “If possible, it is best to use interval or ordinal measured questions to facilitate returning measures of central tendency (mode, median, mean) to the experts in subsequent rounds. The use of Likert, Guttmann, or other scales for question answers is common.” (3) The Delphi method is intended also to take a central idea or concept in the first round of opinions, and widely ask detailed explanations vary from the principle of why to such estimations, the intent is to expand the subject into the thin line of detailed expertise, always questioning the basis of such assumptions. “This same procedure, asking for details of why subsequent judgments differ widely from the previous round’s measures of central tendency, is also used in following rounds—however, in the third and following rounds the reasons given by experts when their answers vary from the central tendency are included in the package returned to the experts.” (4) The Delphi’s method involves at a minimum three rounds of questions, but in many detailed studies, five to six rounds are commonly accepted. The Delphi Method enables the researchers to acquire expert opinions using consensus
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IN520Week#5 Contact - IN520Week#5 Contact IN 520 Week#5...

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