IN 520 Final Exam - IN 520 Final Exam Question 1 (Essay...

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IN 520 Final Exam Question 1 (Essay Worth 100 points) INSTRUCTIONS TO THE STUDENTS: In your LAMP Book of Readings, you will find a LAMP paper written by Mr. Thomas Gadd entitled, “Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East: Which Ones Will Be the First?” You are to write a critique of Mr. Gadd’s paper, answering as completely as you can the following two-part question: 1. Which steps of the LAMP did Mr. Gadd do well, and why? How would you have done those steps any differently, if at all? Mr. Gadd’ paper called “Nuclear Conflict In The Middle East: Which Country Will Be The First?” is a very good paper. I believe that Mr. Gadd LAMP paper did well on the following parts: The major issue (Determination of the Predictive Issue) (1); The Actors bearing on the Problem (Specify the Actors Bearing on the Problem) (2); Identification of the required actions for the subjects involved on the study “Specify courses of action for each actor” (3); The Identification of the most important circumstances “Determine the major scenarios” (4); Breakdown of alternate future scenarios based on the calculation, pairwise comparison, grade order of future scenarios, consequences of future predictions based on the study and the identification of focal future scenarios “ Calculate the number of alternate futures; Do pairwise comparison of alternate futures; Rank order the alternate futures; Analyze consequences of alternate futures; Determine focal events for alternate futures” (5). Mr. Gadd determination of the LAMP Paper major issue identified the three Middle East countries with ongoing nuclear technology and weapons capabilities: Iraq, Iran and Israel. Also, Mr. Gadd identified each nation’s program as the deterrence factor against an initial aggression by any of these three nations against each other; a tool of
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retaliation to a initial strike and the possibility of employing such capabilities in case of defeat of its conventional military resources (6). Mr. Gadd identify the issues to be discussed as: How nuclear weapons in the middle east will influence the regions stability and security, the consequences of a nuclear weapon use on the region, and who will develop nuclear weapons and employ it. (7) Mr. Gadd specifically addresses the nations involved on the Middle East nuclear technology development; he explains the Iraqi, Iranian and Israeli Nuclear Programs, fulfilling the requirement of identifying the actors bearing on the subject study. Mr. Gadd address the Iraqi nuclear program as unclear due to the lack of open source information “ The extent of the program was not known until the 1991 inspections under the terms of the Gulf War cease fire.” (8), and the early strategic concern raised by Israel for such nuclear capabilities by Iraq. Also, he points to the Iraq posture and belief that they are surrounded by enemies in the region, and he also cites the September 1980 attack against Iran as a form of stopping Iranian Ayatollah spread in their country and on the region. (9)
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This note was uploaded on 03/25/2012 for the course IN 520 taught by Professor Unknown during the Spring '07 term at American Public University.

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IN 520 Final Exam - IN 520 Final Exam Question 1 (Essay...

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