Ch 4 - THETRICKTOANTICIPATINGTHEFUTUREISNOTTO

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THE TRICK TO ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE IS  NOT  TO  DETERMINE WHAT IS  LIKELY  TO HAPPEN, BUT WHAT  HAS  ALREADY  HAPPENED THAT WILL CREATE THE  FUTURE. -- PETER DRUCKER
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Objectives Objectives  Characteristics of long-term forecasting  How long-term forecasting supports the decision       making of executives in the textile and apparel      industries  Methodology of long-term forecasting  The criteria for evaluating long-term forecasts
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A Model of the Forecasting Process (Kim, 2011)
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Long-term Forecasting (five years or more): a way to explore possible futures and to build a shared vision of an organization’s direction and development. Short-term Forecasting (more than one year ahead): involves periodic monitoring of the long-term vision and acts to coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the marketplace. Forecasting Forecasting
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Long-Term Forecasting Long-Term Forecasting Long timeline Anticipates the future by linking: Examines the likely result on the economy, political system, and environment. Breakthroughs in science, technology, and medicine Demographic trends
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Forecasting Approach Forecasting Approach Time frame for prediction The techniques used for capturing signals The method used to interpret the signals and make the forecasts The range of forecasts (general or restricted to certain countries or industries)
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John Naisbitt (1982):  John Naisbitt (1982):  Megatrends Megatrends Time frame. The techniques for gathering signals. The methods to interpret the signals. The range of the forecasts. A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society. Decades Content analysis of 6,000 local newspapers each month. Check the shifting space devoted to an issue.
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Naisbitt (1982):  Naisbitt (1982):  Megatrends Megatrends The move toward an information-based economy. The dual compensations of “high tech” and “high touch” products. The shift to a global economy. The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks. The shift from an either/or to a multiple-option society.
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Faith Popcorn     Brain Reserve (Marketing consultancy) in 1974 The Popcorn Report (1991) “Cocooning” (a stay-at-home syndrome building in 1981) had repercussions in multiple industries (e.g., home renovation, master bedroom suite, larger baths, casual, comfortable basic fashion, bed linens, housewares, car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic.)
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This note was uploaded on 04/02/2012 for the course CTE 3809 taught by Professor Dr.kim during the Spring '12 term at Florida State College.

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Ch 4 - THETRICKTOANTICIPATINGTHEFUTUREISNOTTO

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