lecture14_votingbehavior2

lecture14_votingbehavior2 - Lecture 14 Lecture 14 Voting...

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Lecture 14 Lecture 14 Voting behavior PLS 100: Intro to American National Government Professor Lee Michigan State University
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Lecture 14 Intro Voting behavior Last lecture and in sections this week: Bare basics of public opinion. What it is, why does it change? Today: More focus on the building blocks of individual attitudes Focus in particular on individual attitudes regarding candidates for office: Vote choice (taking from chapters 10 and 11)
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Lecture 14 Intro Today’s outline Decision to vote. Decision of who to vote for. Information and voting. Do voters really know enough to make “good” vote choices?
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Lecture 14 Why Vote? Rational to play the lottery? Utility: how much you value something. If you have any uncertainty, we need to think about expected utility. Lottery example: Utility = net winnings Buy $5 lottery ticket. 1% chance of winning $100. Choose not to buy ticket, win nothing. Expected utility = ( 0 . 01 × 100 ) + ( 0 . 99 × 0 ) - 5 = - 4 Should I play? Expected utility of not playing = 0 Expected utility of playing = -4 Should not play.
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Lecture 14 Why Vote? Claim: It is irrational to vote Calculus of voting . Suppose the voter is “expected utility maximizing” R = pb - c (1) R = Reward of voting p = probability of casting pivotal (decisive) vote b = benefit of having preferred candidate win over other candidate c = cost of voting Rational to vote if R > 0.
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Lecture 14 Why Vote? Why is voting irrational? p is essentially zero. Equation (1) simplifies to R = - c . If c > 0, then R < 0. Therefore, not rational to vote. Paradox of Voting . If voting is irrational, then why do people vote?
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Lecture 14 Why Vote? Responses to “paradox” Logic unravels. If everyone thought that way, then no one would vote. Your vote is now pivotal. Social aspect of “decisiveness”
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This note was uploaded on 04/02/2012 for the course PLS 100 taught by Professor Thornton during the Spring '07 term at Michigan State University.

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lecture14_votingbehavior2 - Lecture 14 Lecture 14 Voting...

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