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2-22-11

# 2-22-11 - Deductive Arguments Intended to guarentee the...

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Deductive Arguments Intended to guarentee the truth of the conclusion Ex. (1) All Decembers are cold (2) it’s December (C) it’s cold Inductive Arguments Intended to show that the conclusion is probable given the premises Ex. (1) Most Decembers………. Supply the Implicit Generalization (1) Karen went out into the cold without a sweater (C) Karen will get sick (2) Everyone who goes out in the cold without a sweater gets sick – will give a valid argument (2) Most people who go out in the cold without a sweater get sick – will give an inductively forceful argument Probability Proportions o Indicated by quantifiers Frequencies o How often something has occurred Degree of Rational Expectation o How much one is entitled to believe given the evidence Conditional Probability The conditional probability of q given p is how probable q is assuming that p is true Ex. The conditional probability that it’s sunny given that it’s June is how probable

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2-22-11 - Deductive Arguments Intended to guarentee the...

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