Extra Problem 9 - Expert Judgment

# Extra Problem 9 - Expert Judgment - the straight line...

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EMGT 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Instructor: Dr. J. R. van Dorp 1 EXTRA PROBLEM 9: EXPERT JUDGMENT A manufacturer needs to make an assessment of the size of the potential market for a new product. A market analyst provides the following evaluations for the number of items, N, that can be sold in the first year (in thousands): Pr(N 15) = 0.05 Ÿ Pr(N 45) = 0.05 Pr(N 30) = 0.50 Pr(N 20) = 0.25 Ÿ Pr(N 35) = 0.25 In addition, the market analyst provided the information that at least 5,000 will be sold, but definitely no more that 50,000. A. Draw an approximate continuous cumulative distribution function (CDF) using

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Unformatted text preview: the straight line approximation for N. EMGT 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Instructor: Dr. J. R. van Dorp 2 B. Construct a three-point approximation to this distribution with the extended Pearson-Tukey method. Estimate the expected demand with this approximation. EMGT 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Instructor: Dr. J. R. van Dorp 3 C. Construct a five-point approximation with bracket medians. Estimate the expected demand with this approximation....
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