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ISM Chapter 20 - Chapter 20 20.1 Time series 48 41 37 32 36...

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Chapter 20 20.1 Time series Moving average 48 41 (48+41+37)/3 = 42.00 37 (41+37+32)/3 = 36.67 32 (37+32+36)/3 = 35.00 36 (32+36+31)/3 = 33.00 31 (36+31+43)/3 = 36.67 43 (31+43+52)/3 = 42.00 52 (43+52+60)/3 = 51.67 60 (52+60+48)/3 = 53.33 48 (60+48+41)/3 = 49.67 41 (48+41+30)/3 = 39.67 30 20.2 Time series Moving average 48 41 37 (48 +41+37+32+36)/5 = 38.8 32 (41+37+32+36+31)/5 = 35.4 36 (37+32+36+31+43)/5 = 35.8 31 (32+36+31+43+52)/5 = 38.8 43 (36+31+43+52+60)/5 = 44.4 52 (31+43+52+60+48)/5 = 46.8 60 (43+52+60+48+41)/5 = 48.8 48 (52+60+48+41+30)/5 = 46.2 41 30 29
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20.3 20.4 Time series Moving average 16 22 (16+22+19)/3 = 19.00 19 (22+19+24)/3 = 21.67 24 (19+24+30)/3 = 24.33 30 (24+30+26)/3 = 26.67 26 (30+26+24)/3 = 26.67 24 (26+24+29)/3 = 26.33 29 (24+29+21)/3 = 24.67 21 (29+21+23)/3 = 24.33 23 (21+23+19)/3 = 21.00 19 (23+19+15)/3 = 19.00 15 20.5 Time series Moving average 16 22 19 (16+22+19+24+30)/5 = 22.2 24 (22+19+24+30+26)/5 = 24.2 30 (19+24+30+26+24)/5 = 24.6 26 (24+30+26+24+29)/5 = 26.6 24 (30+26+24+29+21)/5 = 26.0 29 (26+24+29+21+23)/5 = 24.6 21 (24+29+21+23+19)/5 = 23.2 23 (29+21+23+19+15)/5 = 21.4 19 15 30
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20.6 20.7 Time series Exponentially smoothed time series 12 12 18 .1(18) +. 9(12) = 12.60 16 .1(16) +. 9(12.60) = 12.94 24 .1(24) +. 9(12.94) = 14.05 17 .1(17) +. 9(14.05) = 14.34 16 .1(16) +. 9(14.34) = 14.51 25 .1(25) +. 9(14.51) = 15.56 21 .1(21) +. 9(15.56) = 16.10 23 .1(23) + .9(16.10) = 16.79 14 .1(14) + .9(16.79) = 16.51 20.8 Time series Exponentially smoothed time series 12 12 18 .8(18) +. 2(12) = 16.80 16 .8(16) +. 2(16.80) = 16.16 24 .8(24) +. 2(16.16) = 22.43 17 .8(17) +. 2(22.43) = 18.09 16 .8(16) +. 2(18.09) = 16.42 25 .8(25) +. 2(16.42) = 23.28 21 .8(21) +. 2(23.28) = 21.46 23 .8(23) + .2(21.46) = 22.69 14 .8(14) + .2(22.69) = 15.74 31
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20.9 There appears to be a gradual upward trend. 20.10 Time series Exponentially smoothed time series 38 38 43 .1(43) +. 9(38) = 38.50 42 .1(42) +. 9(38.50) = 38.85 45 .1(45) +. 9(38.85) = 39.47 46 .1(46) +. 9(39.47) = 40.12 48 .1(48) +. 9(40.12) = 40.91 50 .1(50) +. 9(40.91) = 41.82 49 .1(49) +. 9(41.82) = 42.53 46 .1(46) + .9(42.53) = 42.88 45 .1(45) + .9(42.88) = 43.09 20.11 Time series Exponentially smoothed time series 38 38 43 .8(43) +. 2(38) = 42.00 42 .8(42) +. 2(42.00) = 42.00 45 .8(45) +. 2(42.00) = 44.40 46 .8(46) +. 2(44.40) = 45.68 48 .8(48) +. 2(45.68) = 47.54 50 .8(50) +. 2(47.54) = 49.51 49 .8(49) +. 2(49.51) = 49.10 46 .8(46) + .2(49.10) = 46.62 45 .8(45) + .2(46.62) = 45.32 32
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20.12 There is a trend component. 20.13 & 20.14 Sales 3-Day moving average 5-Day moving average 43 45 (43+45+22)/3 = 36.67 22 (45+22+25)/3 = 30.67 (43+45+22+25+31)/5 = 33.2 25 (22+25+31)/3 = 26.00 (45+22+25+31+51)/5 = 34.8 31 (25+31+51)/3 = 35.67 (22+25+31+51+41)/5 = 34.0 51 (31+51+41)/3 = 41.00 (25+31+51+41+37)/5 = 37.0 41 (51+41+37)/3 = 43.00 (31+51+41+37+22)/5 = 36.4 37 (41+37+22)/3 = 33.33 (51+41+37+22+25)/5 = 35.2 22 (37+22+25)/3 = 28.00 (41+37+22+25+40)/5 = 33.0 25 (22+25+40)/3 = 29.00 (37+22+25+40+57)/5 = 36.2 40 (25+40+57)/3 = 40.67 (22+25+40+57+30)/5 = 34.8 57 (40+57+30)/3 = 42.33 (25+40+57+30+33)/5 = 37.0 30 (57+30+33)/3 = 40.00 (40+57+30+33+37)/5 = 39.4 33 (30+33+37)/3 = 33.33 (57+30+33+37+64)/5 = 44.2 37 (33+37+64)/3 = 44.67 (30+33+37+64+58)/5 = 44.4 64 (37+64+58)/3 = 53.00 (33+37+64+58+33)/5 = 45.0 58 (64+58+33)/3 = 51.67 (37+64+58+33+38)/5 = 46.0 33 (58+33+38)/3 = 43.00 (64+58+33+38+25)/5 = 43.6 38 (33+38+25)/3 = 32.00 25 33
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c There appears to be a seasonal (weekly) pattern.
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