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Is the death of a parent the same as the
death of an unmarried, childless adult?
Is the death of a rich person the same
as the death of a poor person? Risk Frames II: Quantitative
Which is the biggest risk?
A lifetime risk of 0.002446875
A lifetime risk of a quarter percent
A lifetime risk of 4 in 1600 Risk Frames II: Quantitative
Exposure to PCBs is expected to kill 2.5
salmon in a 1000 over their life cycle.
Which presentation is most appropriate?
The lifetime risk to salmon is 0.0025
The lifetime risk is 0.25%
The lifetime risk is 1 in 400
In a population of 1000 salmon, 2.5 will die Guidelines for Framing risk
Do not present statistics as you find them Pick numbers for which the data are good Use whole numbers and fractions whenever possible Pick easily understandable numbers Use visual aids Choose numbers considered fair and relevant Be clear but do not oversimplify Be consistent with other risk presentations Offer multiple estimates of same risk - risk comparisons! Risk Comparisons
A method for communicating risk by
demonstrating how dangerous it is
compared to other risks.
People understand some quantitative
data - we know how long a foot is - but
we don’t have a solid grasp of how big
an increased lifetime risk of .047 i...
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- Fall '11
- United States, Risk Frames