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Session 21.22.Designing Message RC Efforts

Is the death of a parent the same as the death of an

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Unformatted text preview: son? Is the death of a parent the same as the death of an unmarried, childless adult? Is the death of a rich person the same as the death of a poor person? Risk Frames II: Quantitative Which is the biggest risk? A lifetime risk of 0.002446875 A lifetime risk of a quarter percent A lifetime risk of 4 in 1600 Risk Frames II: Quantitative Exposure to PCBs is expected to kill 2.5 salmon in a 1000 over their life cycle. Which presentation is most appropriate? The lifetime risk to salmon is 0.0025 The lifetime risk is 0.25% The lifetime risk is 1 in 400 In a population of 1000 salmon, 2.5 will die Guidelines for Framing risk  Do not present statistics as you find them  Pick numbers for which the data are good  Use whole numbers and fractions whenever possible  Pick easily understandable numbers  Use visual aids  Choose numbers considered fair and relevant  Be clear but do not oversimplify  Be consistent with other risk presentations  Offer multiple estimates of same risk - risk comparisons! Risk Comparisons A method for communicating risk by demonstrating how dangerous it is compared to other risks. People understand some quantitative data - we know how long a foot is - but we don’t have a solid grasp of how big an increased lifetime risk of .047 i...
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