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Session 21.22.Designing Message RC Efforts

Is the death of a parent the same as the death of an

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Unformatted text preview: son? Is the death of a parent the same as the death of an unmarried, childless adult? Is the death of a rich person the same as the death of a poor person? Risk Frames II: Quantitative Which is the biggest risk? A lifetime risk of 0.002446875 A lifetime risk of a quarter percent A lifetime risk of 4 in 1600 Risk Frames II: Quantitative Exposure to PCBs is expected to kill 2.5 salmon in a 1000 over their life cycle. Which presentation is most appropriate? The lifetime risk to salmon is 0.0025 The lifetime risk is 0.25% The lifetime risk is 1 in 400 In a population of 1000 salmon, 2.5 will die Guidelines for Framing risk  Do not present statistics as you find them  Pick numbers for which the data are good  Use whole numbers and fractions whenever possible  Pick easily understandable numbers  Use visual aids  Choose numbers considered fair and relevant  Be clear but do not oversimplify  Be consistent with other risk presentations  Offer multiple estimates of same risk - risk comparisons! Risk Comparisons A method for communicating risk by demonstrating how dangerous it is compared to other risks. People understand some quantitative data - we know how long a foot is - but we don’t have a solid grasp of how big an increased lifetime risk of .047 i...
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