Unit VIII Article Critique Jasmine Holt.docx - 1 Risk...

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Risk Assessment of Counter terrorism efforts
Jasmine Holt
Columbia Southern University
Introduction to Terrorism
Professor Michael B. Simmmons

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Risk Assessment of the FBI’s Counterterrorism Efforts
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller write an investigative article evaluating the costs and
benefits of counterterrorism spending that utilizes four variables, including the consequences of a
successful attack, the likelihood of a successful attack; the degree to which the security measures
reduces risk; and the cost of the security measures. In reviewing the Department of Homeland
Securities' spending on terrorism, Stewart and Mueller found little evidence of risk analysis
capabilities, no attempt to describe absolute risks, and preference of only describing relevant
risks. The article called "Risk Assessment of the FBI's Counterterrorism Efforts" dives into the
FBI's counterterrorism approach to assess if it confidently reduces the terrorism risk enough to
justify its costs.
Summary
Stewart and Mueller argue that counterterrorism agencies seem to focus more on
identifying a potential threat and then doing something about it and less on systematically
evaluating the magnitude of harm that could be caused by a future terrorist attack. Now
counterterrorism activities pre 9/11 costs the FBI roughly $600 million; however, post 9/11
became the FBI's top priority. Counterterrorism activities today cost the bureau approximately 3
billion dollars (36 percent of FBI expenditures). The article argues whether or not these efforts
reduce the risk of terrorism because terrorist attacks are rare. It argues that it is difficult to assess
the actual risk. It does not seek to discredit the efforts the FBI's counterterrorism activities have
had in reducing the risk and the threats against our nation. Stuart and Mueller argue that since the